Jump to content

What Will Become of PTCGO


frozen_eclipse

Recommended Posts

Hello all. I just want to throw an idea out there, something that I had predicted would happen and of which we are now beginning to experience. If you're into the TCGO, you should read this and take it to heart.

 

Pokemon TCGO is much like an economy, with packs and cards as currency. There are two ways of creating currency, which can be simplified as "mining" and "printing". A currency derived from the "mining" method has inherent value because its worth is based on the work put in to obtain it. Mined money will not lose value because there is always an amount of labor or cost associated with producing it. On the other hand, "printed" currency is derived from no work at all; it is produced with no input, thus losing value over time, in a process known as inflation. When more and more of a currency is generated with no backing, its value depreciates because there is more of it out there; people will pay less for something more common. It happened in inter-war Germany and 1980s Argentina. It's happening in the U.S. today. And, most tragically of all, it it happening to our precious TCGO.

 

I'm not suggesting that this game works like something as large and complex as a national economy. However, the mechanics of a larger network apply here too because things lose value as they become more common. As more and more codes are redeemed for packs and then opened or stored as a commodity, their value goes down because there is no work inside the game to obtain them. Some will argue that there is a backing to the packs and cards because they cost real money in real life. However, the economies of real life and the game are separate--it took no work to produce them in the game in which they are used, and therefore lose value in that system. How valuable is your Magnezone Prime if a hundred other players have one just the same? A thousand?

 

I do not endorse a particular solution to this problem, nor am I making the "penny is worth more than $100" argument. I only want to put an observation in words. A correlation is clear, and statistically explainable. If you don't believe that a connection exists between passing time and falling values, compare Gotaway's prices now to what they were a month ago.

 

God be with us.

 

~ frozen_eclipse

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a horribly simplistic view on inflation.

 

Your basic premise trips and falls over itself, as nothing has inherent value.

 

Anyhow, the inflation is there due to a current high demand, but the prices will start to stagnate and the market will eventually crash when the influx of new users stops and the average number or cards per user rises.

 

The oversaturation of the market with rares is inevitable and once it happens all cards will have minimum trading value and the only cards that will be worth anything are new releases, which will have ridiculous pricings until their own value drops.

 

The speed of this process depends entirely on PTCGOs success.

 

Also, the only way to slow down, or even limit the inflation would be to give cards in-game currency trading value, the possiblity to trade the cards with the game itself for Gems/Tokens which in turn would be used to buy additional packs or avatar items.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

That's a horribly simplistic view on inflation.

 

Your basic premise trips and falls over itself, as nothing has inherent value.

 

Things have inherent value if they are in low supply, high demand, or both. Because cards and packs are in virtually infinite supply, low demand due to the current unpopularity of this game, and have no inherent value because they took no in-game effort to receive.

 

Anyhow, the inflation is there due to a current high demand, but the prices will start to stagnate and the market will eventually crash when the influx of new users stops and the average number or cards per user rises.

 

Which is what I explained in my first post.

 

The oversaturation of the market with rares is inevitable and once it happens all cards will have minimum trading value and the only cards that will be worth anything are new releases, which will have ridiculous pricings until their own value drops.

 

There is no such thing as a "minimum trading value". Prices will continue to fall as cards and packs become more popular.

 

The speed of this process depends entirely on PTCGOs success.

 

This contradicts what you just said. If the influx of new users slows, the average number of cards-per-user rises. This will eventually occur regardless of "how successful" the game is.

 

Also, the only way to slow down, or even limit the inflation would be to give cards in-game currency trading value, the possiblity to trade the cards with the game itself for Gems/Tokens which in turn would be used to buy additional packs or avatar items.

 

I thought of posting this as a solution, but did not want to rekindle the whole "free vs. pay" debate again. So my stance on fixing this problem is to wait and see what Pokemon does.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess my major quesiton is this:

 

 

 

Why is it bad if the cards become cheaper?

 

Honestly, it allows more people to build more competitive decks. I don't really see this as a bad thing. I'm also not sure how much inflation we'll see as the packs become less valuable. As Idon pointed out, the main issue will be cards in new packs becoming rediculously overpriced. I think we saw a bit of that beginning with NV. Obviously new packs/cards will always be in the highest demand, but I do see it getting to the point where the prices are outragous and then suddenly drop off when the next set comes out. I don't expect the introduction of EXs to help this at all.

 

 

 

In the end though, I'm not sure cards losing value is a catastrophy since it allows more people full access to the game. I do believe a way to trade with the game would certainly help stablize the economy though, and hope it's something we see in the months to come.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 

I do believe a way to trade with the game would certainly help stablize the economy though, and hope it's something we see in the months to come.

 

What exactly do you mean by this? Like set rates to trade cards? I personally like the free market approach because individuals will value cards differently, and it allows people to give gifts and stuff. If you meant something different I apologize for the assumption.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Things have inherent value if they are in low supply, high demand, or both. Because cards and packs are in virtually infinite supply, low demand due to the current unpopularity of this game, and have no inherent value because they took no in-game effort to receive.

 

No they don't, they can enter a market with the value which is currently accepted but that value is neither permanent nor is it, naturally, a set value for that item.

 

Which is what I explained in my first post.

 

You explained nothing of sort, you argued the inherent value of items and how inflation occurs due to monetary units being distributed mostly to jobs not directly related to the production of goods.

 

There is no such thing as a "minimum trading value". Prices will continue to fall as cards and packs become more popular.

 

I was obviously referring to the lowest possible minimum where it still retains a value and as such is still tradeable.

 

A trade "limit" in math terms if you will.

 

This contradicts what you just said. If the influx of new users slows, the average number of cards-per-user rises. This will eventually occur regardless of "how successful" the game is.

 

Yeah lets completely ignore that I didn't specify whether it speeds up or slows down the process, rather just generally referred to the speed as I was just pointing out the correlation between it and the actual process.

 

I felt no need to actually point out whether it slows it down or speeds it up as the conclusion could be easily drawn by anyone who read my entire post up to that point.

 

Nice job there.

 

 

 

post

 

 

No no no, absolutely not. And there is no need to apologize, I'm actually glad you brought it up as I can elaborate a bit further now.

 

What I meant is that the trade between players is still free but the players also have a option to trade with the game itself for a fixed price in order to get gems (or whatever the other unit would be).

 

That way common cards will have some actual trading value as you could trade a bunch of them for a rare as the person who traded you the rare could trade those with the game in order to get gems which they can then use to buy boosters or avatar items.

 

This would lessen the gap between the value of commons, uncommons and rares.

 

I apologize if there are any typos, the morning coffee has still to kick in.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

No no no, absolutely not. And there is no need to apologize, I'm actually glad you brought it up as I can elaborate a bit further now.

 

What I meant is that the trade between players is still free but the players also have a option to trade with the game itself for a fixed price in order to get gems (or whatever the other unit would be).

 

That way common cards will have some actual trading value as you could trade a bunch of them for a rare as the person who traded you the rare could trade those with the game in order to get gems which they can then use to buy boosters or avatar items.

 

This would lessen the gap between the value of commons, uncommons and rares.

 

I apologize if there are any typos, the morning coffee has still to kick in.

 

 

Ah, I see what you mean now. That sounds like a great idea actually. I hope something like that does get implemented.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This would lessen the gap between the value of commons, uncommons and rares. what gap? there is no gap there is the cards everybody wants cause they are lamme (ex catcher jus cause its silly) and there is the other ones that nobody want cause silly trainers made them useless or something. pff u guys a babling nonsense

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...