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What are the odds?


playhavock

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I've put Jirachi (Prism) in my deck(s) and saw it in my prizes once after IDK how many matches. I've made a deck with 4 clover and 4 greedy dice. What would the odds be to draw all four clovers, have your prize card be Jiachi, get all four dice heads and thus win the game on turn 1? 

 

(4 clovers = 1 prize)

(Jirachi gets a prize when you get him as a prize if you have bench space) (1 prize)

(Greedy flips a coin, heads you take a prize) (4 prize)

 

Anyone super good at math have a go! :D

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Challenge accepted xd This is gonna take a while though, and I can't sit down to do the math right now. I'll have to do it later today or tomorrow.

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I'll leave the math to Sakura, who's good at that. You're looking at getting 9 specific cards in 13, with 1 of those having to be in a group of 6, and a few other things.

 

There's going to be some dependence on the rest of your deck for practical purposes: If Jirachi needs to be prized, it needs to not be in your hand FIRST. That means counting the odds against drawing it as your starting basic, which in turn requires knowing how many other basics (or basic substitutes in certain cases) you have.

 

The setup can be further influenced by prize manipulation cards you might have.

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I won't race Sakura for the answer, but I will say this: in Unlimited, you can combine Jirachi and the dice (it's probably not worth having the clover then) with Rotom to guarantee that they're in your prizes... I built a deck based on this a couple months ago,

************* Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

##Pokémon - 13

* 3 Slugma LOT 43

* 2 Magcargo CES 24

* 1 Rotom UD 20

* 1 Jirachi {*} CES 97

* 2 Tapu Lele-GX GRI 137

* 3 Articuno ROS 17

* 1 Keldeo-EX BCR 49]

##Trainer Cards - 37

* 2 Rescue Stretcher BUS 165

* 4 Aqua Patch GRI 119

* 4 Professor Sycamore BKP 107

* 3 N PR-BLW 100

* 4 Greedy Dice STS 102

* 4 Ultra Ball DEX 102

* 2 Choice Band GRI 121

* 2 Acro Bike PRC 122

* 2 Brigette BKT 134

* 2 Colress PLS 118

* 1 Scoop Up Cyclone PLB 95

* 2 Float Stone PLF 99

* 4 VS Seeker PHF 109

* 1 AZ PHF 91

##Energy - 10

* 10 Water Energy EVO 93

Total Cards - 60

******* Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******

and they've fixed the bug with prizes not staying in order, so it's actually usable now.  :D

Edited by SuperStone
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Without considering if it is a mulligan (we don't know how many basics are there), this is the calculations:

 

Scenario 1:

4 clovers in hand; 4 dice and 1 jirachi in prize

-7 cards in hand (setup) with 4 clovers. 1 in 18, 545.35 chance of having this hand.

-6 cards in prize with 5 specific cards. 1 in 478,280.83 chance of having this in prize after above.

-drawing 5 correct cards from prize consecutively. 1 in 6 chance to not drawing the wrong card.

-getting 4 consecutive heads. 1 in 16 chance.

This is 1 in 851.5 billion of getting this combo together.

 

Scenario 2:

3 clovers in hand; 4 dice, 1 jirachi and 1 clover in prize

-7 cards in hand (setup) with 3 clovers. 1 in 386.36 chance of having this hand.

-6 cards in prize with 6 specific cards. 1 in 22,957,480 chance of having this in prize after above.

-drawing prizes is 1 in 1 because you have nothing to avoid.

--getting 4 consecutive heads. 1 in 16 chance.

This is 1 in 141.9 billion of getting this combo together.

 

Scenario 3:

3 clovers in hand; 4 dice and 1 jirachi in prize; 1 clover in turn 1

-7 cards in hand (setup) with 3 clovers. 1 in 386.36 chance of having this hand.

-6 cards in prize with 5 specific cards. 1 in 488,457.02 chance of having this in prize after above.

-drawing a clover in turn 1. 1 in 47 chance.

-drawing 5 correct cards from prize consecutively. 1 in 6 chance to not drawing the wrong card.

-getting 4 consecutive heads. 1 in 16 chance.

This is 1 in 851.5 billion of getting this combo together.

 

Put all these scenarios together. Chance of winning in turn 1 by using 4xclovers, drawing 4xdice and 1 jirachi from prize and getting 4 heads is 1 in 106.4 billion. This is without considering mulligans. The probability will be lower if we say winning in this condition without having mulligan (or having only certain number of mulligans).

 

When there is mulligan, the whole deck is reshuffled so having the above combinations would have the same probability.

 

If you have other calculations, this is a really good topic to discuss. I really like numbers.

Edited by Peterabing
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  • 1 month later...

1 in 106.4 billion! so your telling me there's a chance.... XD :D lol wow.

Also rather then 1 Rotom UD, we now have Mr. Mime from Detective Pikachu  set. Its still kinda wonky though.

 

See my "Prize Surprise" deck below and feel free to suggest changes :D


 

Spoiler


****** Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

##Pokémon - 19

* 2 Shaymin-EX ROS 77
* 3 Slugma KSS 6
* 3 Magcargo CES 24
* 1 Jirachi {*} CES 97
* 2 Kartana-GX CIN 70
* 2 Mr. Mime DET 11
* 3 Slowpoke BKP 19
* 3 Slowbro BKP 20

##Trainer Cards - 26

* 1 Master Ball PLB 94
* 4 Missing Clover UPR 129
* 4 Greedy Dice STS 102
* 4 Maintenance FFI 96
* 2 Ninja Boy STS 103
* 3 Ultra Ball SUM 161
* 4 AZ PHF 91
* 4 Super Scoop Up CES 146

##Energy - 15

* 2 Counter Energy CIN 100
* 4 Double Colorless Energy FCO 114
* 4 Rainbow Energy CES 151
* 5 Metal Energy  8

Total Cards - 60

****** Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******


 

 

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  • 4 months later...

For any future reference for, when your trying to find out the probability, of drawing a card or prizeing a card, I would recommend learning how to use and useing a hypergeometric calculator. It tells you the probability of drawing that card, not drawing it, the chance of drawing 1 or less and the chance of drawing one of more. So it's a really helpful tool, for deck  building. 

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