Is my game client cursed?

[ShouldntSeeThis]

Lots of threads on here griping about the RNG flip frequency, and this is not another one.

 

I do seem to see a few more tails than heads, but not enough to be outside the expected normal distribution.

 

My complaint is when they do or don't come up, and it feels like it's particular to my game client to be on the losing end of most matchups.

 

For example, I just lost a theme deck battle against Relentless Flame (Charizard) in the most unbelievable manner.  I was using Imperial Command, and I had both Empoleons in play and powered up.  The score came down to 1-1 (amazing in its own right, but he played almost no fire types) and it was Empoleon vs Rapidash.

 

He managed to attack 4 times with Agility and flip heads every time.  I kept switching out my active card to spread the damage, and on the fifth play he finally flipped tails...then I lost because I had zero cards left in my hand.

 

 

Had this been a one-time occurrence, I wouldn't be spending time typing this; but this kind of stuff happens to me all the time.  Multiple mulligans when I'm the advantaged player, flipping double-tails on timer balls, flipping triple-tails when attacking with Sandshrew, etc.  By seat of the pants estimation, I come out on the short end of RNG decisions around 75% of the time.

 

So was the game meant to be this dependent on the vagaries of its decision engine?  Do I need to nuke it and try installing a fresh client?

 

Anyone else get the feeling their client is "cursed" like this?

Edited February 15, 2019 by ShouldntSeeThis

[Chasista]

I don't pay attention enough to flip coins and actually I do avoid including lucky dependant=coin flip dependant cards in my decks. It's very odd I include Timer ball for example. So I think I can't help more than the usual: some times if tails it's all tails and if heads it's all heads or a lot of times is just 3-1 or 1-3, but it's weird to be 2-2 or . The RNG is lazy. When servers are busy

 

All that being said, the reason d'être of my answer is to point that Advantage is nothing related with the game you're playing. Advantage only means the ELO rating between the 2 players is higher than X positions (where X is a secret only known by the game devs) as the client prioritizes fast games over close ELO gamers, so theoretically the higher is better so, if the non advantaged player wins, gets 5 extra bolts in the ladder. That's all.

[Sakura150612]

It's pretty much just a matter of perception rather than an actual problem. Sometimes you get bad luck, and sometimes you get long streaks of really bad luck. While an outcome that has already happened has no effect on future outcomes, due to sheer probabilities the numbers "even out" in the long run. It's hard to believe that the client for any given person is malfunctioning is such a way that the RNG is skewed just for them (and to be honest, the borderline conspiracy theories that the RNG is messed up for everyone and on purpose are even less believable. Not throwing you in either of those categories btw, I know you aren't suggesting that).

 

This is somewhat outdated by now (should probably get around to updating it some day), but it still shows more than less what you can expect out of coinflips when you amass a lot of them: forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/50987-rng-experiment-attack-coinflips/. If nothing else, it might be good for your peace of mind.

[ShouldntSeeThis]

Thanks, y'all.

 

Again, it doesn't seem to be a matter of quantity (heads vs. tails), it's the specificity of when the unfavorable flips occur.

 

Another example related to the Timer Ball: When it's late in the game and I already have my cards evolved, I tend to see a lot more heads flipped for it.  When early in the game, though, I virtually always see TT or TH.

 

In the game I just lost (IC vs. TC), I was up 3-5 on prize cards and had my opponent pinned in a deck-out situation.  I had multiple Manaphy cards in play and kept using Water Pulse to put his active card to sleep.  He flipped heads after every single attack.  Every. single. one.

 

If even ONE of those flips had been tails, he'd have lost.

 

I had the advantage in that last game. I had to take a mulligan, and my resulting draw was Piplup, Rescue Stretcher, and 5 Energy cards.  On my next two turns, I drew energy both times.

 

Like I said, this kind of thing happens to me with unbelievable frequency.  I lose games that should have been wins (even easy wins) because the ONE set of circumstances that would have to happen somehow did.

 

The game is fun to play, but I don't enjoy having to battle both the opponent AND the game engine.

[Sakura150612]

Honestly the only solution (if you could call it that) is to avoid coin flip cards like the plague. It's not that they don't work properly, it's that it's stupidly frustrating when they fail you at the worst possible moment even if it happens exactly as often as it's supposed to.

 

From what I could observe at least, there really aren't any patterns after all. Long streaks of heads or tails can happen relatively often. String of 6 heads or tails in a row or less all have a chance of above 1% (which seems like it's small, but it really isn't). The truly absurd strings of 10+ heads/tails happen about as often as math would indicate. Even if it seems that these streaks happen too often, that's actually a sign that things really are random. The only way for heads or tails streaks to not be clustered would be to artificially mess with the RNG so that it prevents this occurrence. Otherwise, it's within the natural spectrum of distribution for things to happen this way.

 

You know what's funny? Certain things other than games (where the RNG needs to be fair) actually use an altered RNG which, despite being factually non-random, feels more random. For example, certain audio players have the "shuffle" option altered in such a way that songs can't repeat themselves in a row, or can't repeat themselves more than X times in a row, and other such small modifications. Because what you hear is more varied than what true randomness would yield, in your mind that registers as true randomness.

[Felidae_]

Heathen, listen to the word of the one true lord, for he has forsaken thee!

 

Curse upon the infidels and their cards! Maybe their flips turn tail side up, may their openings be void of basics and may their DCE be rotting in their price cards. Don't pray to the false Gods, to statistics, maths and the imposter named RNGesus.

If you want to walk the path of the righteous you first have to repent and atone for your sins. Cast away thy Pokemon EX and GX, for they are blindly thy sight. Begone with your filthy FA & SR cards, for only the humble can reach through enlightenment. Rid thyself of synergies,abundance of supporter and trainer cards and embrace the 20/20/20 format, as these are the holy numbers foretold by the true prophet of the divine one.

 

Join us, brother and praise the immortal, the divine, the almighty Xensor.

 

The church is still open and we welcome everyone who seeks enlightenment.

http://forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/49547-the-church-if-xensor-learn-from-the-true-pokemon-master/?hl=church

[Sakura150612]

Heathen, listen to the word of the one true lord, for he has forsaken thee!

 

Curse upon the infidels and their cards! Maybe their flips turn tail side up, may their openings be void of basics and may their DCE be rotting in their price cards. Don't pray to the false Gods, to statistics, maths and the imposter named RNGesus.

If you want to walk the path of the righteous you first have to repent and atone for your sins. Cast away thy Pokemon EX and GX, for they are blindly thy sight. Begone with your filthy FA & SR cards, for only the humble can reach through enlightenment. Rid thyself of synergies,abundance of supporter and trainer cards and embrace the 20/20/20 format, as these are the holy numbers foretold by the true prophet of the divine one.

 

Join us, brother and praise the immortal, the divine, the almighty Xensor.

 

The church is still open and we welcome everyone who seeks enlightenment.

http://forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/49547-the-church-if-xensor-learn-from-the-true-pokemon-master/?hl=church

I'm a simple person. I see a Xensor joke, I give it a like xd

 

Man, why did they have to permaban him? Even if he probably deserved it, he really filled an important place in our community xd

[ShouldntSeeThis]

.

Edited February 15, 2019 by ShouldntSeeThis

[ShouldntSeeThis]

Honestly the only solution (if you could call it that) is to avoid coin flip cards like the plague. It's not that they don't work properly, it's that it's stupidly frustrating when they fail you at the worst possible moment even if it happens exactly as often as it's supposed to.

 

Yup, I do try to avoid them.  For one, because I seem to come out on the losing side of these RNG decisions more often than not, but also because I personally believe that if you're relying on chance to carry you through then your game strategy isn't really all that strong (or even solid).

 

 

Heathen, listen to the word of the one true lord, for he has forsaken thee!

 

Thanks, kitty cat, I needed that chuckle!   

[harshu]

Just 2 things to say -

 

1. RNG works for everyone the same whether good or bad.

 

2. Randomness in real world cannot be implemented in computers, don't expect true randomness in this game as well. In real world, getting 10+ heads in a row is hard and then followed by 10 tails, in PTCGO this is usual for everyone, which is why it seems upsetting. Because as humans, we don't expect those outputs based on our real life experience

 

So, just think of it as opponent might have had a really bad previous game, which was compensated by the game, by awarding him some good luck and you were simply unlucky to be in that kind of tricky situations.

 

As chasista suggested use less flip cards.

Edited February 16, 2019 by harshu

[Sakura150612]

Randomness in real world cannot be implemented in computers, don't expect true randomness in this game as well. In real world, getting 10+ heads in a row is hard and then followed by 10 tails, in PTCGO this is usual for everyone, which is why it seems upsetting. Because as humans, we don't expect those outputs based on our real life experience

I'm gonna have to offer a correction to that. A string of 10 heads followed by 10 tails is exactly as unlikely with a RNG as is is with a real coin. Like I said, it's a matter of perception rather than reality. Confirmation bias is much stronger than people think it is, and all of us have fallen to it at some point. Humans are by nature pattern-making machines, which in many ways it's convenient and even necessary, but this also means that we sometimes detect patterns where there aren't any. If you've ever taken (or heard of) the Rorscharch Test you would know what I mean.

 

Everything combined, when you look at the RNG and a real coin you expect them to behave differently. For us, the RNG is much more of a black box than real coins, so your mind is more open to the possibility that it could malfuction for reasons that you don't understand. With that preconception, your expectation leads you to unconciously select the data points that confirm the existance of a pattern while taking little notice of the ones that don't. When you actually write down hundreds of coinflips in a row and look at the corresponding distribution graphs of a fair coin, you realize at a concious level that the only "pattern" that exists is that the numbers all fall in place.

 

Plus, depending on how you define it, there might not even be a thing such as "true randomness". "Random" isn't something that happens without a cause (because that would break one of the fundamental principles of existence), but rather something where the immediate outcome cannot be reasonably predicted in real time. In this sense, both RNG and physical coin flip results are truly random. For the RNG, the result is caused by a complex algorithm which takes several different sources of input to produce a defined result. But for the real coin it's actually exactly the same: it takes several sources of input to create a result. The only difference is that instead of numbers it takes physical factors into account (strength of the flip, point where you flipped the coin, wind resistance, material of the coin, so on and so forth). What the so-called TRNGs do is to incorporate physical factors from the environment which are translated into data (numbers), but that doesn't really make it more "truly" random. Heck, many developers preffer PRNGs (which we usually just call RNG) because they emulate the theoretical distribution of outcomes with a lower degree of error.

 

Honestly, this can get quite philosophical if we take it too far xd I think I'm gonna cut it of here for now.

[harshu]

I'm gonna have to offer a correction to that. A string of 10 heads followed by 10 tails is exactly as unlikely with a RNG as is is with a real coin. Like I said, it's a matter of perception rather than reality. Confirmation bias is much stronger than people think it is, and all of us have fallen to it at some point. Humans are by nature pattern-making machines, which in many ways it's convenient and even necessary, but this also means that we sometimes detect patterns where there aren't any. If you've ever taken (or heard of) the Rorscharch Test you would know what I mean.

 

Everything combined, when you look at the RNG and a real coin you expect them to behave differently. For us, the RNG is much more of a black box than real coins, so your mind is more open to the possibility that it could malfuction for reasons that you don't understand. With that preconception, your expectation leads you to unconciously select the data points that confirm the existance of a pattern while taking little notice of the ones that don't. When you actually write down hundreds of coinflips in a row and look at the corresponding distribution graphs of a fair coin, you realize at a concious level that the only "pattern" that exists is that the numbers all fall in place.

 

Plus, depending on how you define it, there might not even be a thing such as "true randomness". "Random" isn't something that happens without a cause (because that would break one of the fundamental principles of existence), but rather something where the immediate outcome cannot be reasonably predicted in real time. In this sense, both RNG and physical coin flip results are truly random. For the RNG, the result is caused by a complex algorithm which takes several different sources of input to produce a defined result. But for the real coin it's actually exactly the same: it takes several sources of input to create a result. The only difference is that instead of numbers it takes physical factors into account (strength of the flip, point where you flipped the coin, wind resistance, material of the coin, so on and so forth). What the so-called TRNGs do is to incorporate physical factors from the environment which are translated into data (numbers), but that doesn't really make it more "truly" random. Heck, many developers preffer PRNGs (which we usually just call RNG) because they emulate the theoretical distribution of outcomes with a lower degree of error.

 

Honestly, this can get quite philosophical if we take it too far xd I think I'm gonna cut it of here for now.

Take a look at pseudo randomness in computers, if you are not in computers field try reading about disruption in computers and how they help in randomness.

 

For the statistics part, everyone knows getting 10 heads and 10 tails is correct by the laws of probability, what we are overlooking is how it is achieved. As for my perspective, I have given a fair amount of reading on randomness and all articles, researches, quantum computers etc.. conclude that what happens in real world is near impossible to achieve on computers reason being so - computers can't think and only do what is told. So any algorithm you give, it will have its definite output coupled with error from physical hardware used to create pseudo randomness.

 

The point is, these errors are very minute hence cannot direct randomness properly as opposed to the real world, where all the physical aspects are too great in deciding the outcome as stated by you. Moreover, most of the time these physical factors are uncontrollable by us humans and hence we call it randomness as opposed to what happens in computers. In computers even error is controlled by algorithms.

 

To conclude, no matter what the outcome is, as long as the control of factors remains in the hands of algorithms with minute errors, RNG cannot be "real word randomness" (I skipped it calling true randomness as I agree that nothing is truly random if we go by fundamental laws of physics, every factor would play its part, only difference being, 1 would be out of our control, other being in our control)

 

I hope that clears my previous comment

[Sakura150612]

Fair enough. I think I understand your point now.

[Sadra]

Just out of curiosity, I just searched this Xensor guy and it seems that he got perma-banned. Other than he complains quite a lot, what was the primary reason that got him banned?

[Sakura150612]

Just out of curiosity, I just searched this Xensor guy and it seems that he got perma-banned. Other than he complains quite a lot, what was the primary reason that got him banned?

No one really knows. He was kind of a troll, but as far as I'm concerned he never did anything truly ban worthy. Who knows, maybe he PM'd some angry messages at the mods or something. I wouldn't put it past him.

[RobRatt]

Just out of curiosity, I just searched this Xensor guy and it seems that he got perma-banned. Other than he complains quite a lot, what was the primary reason that got him banned?

No one really knows. He was kind of a troll, but as far as I'm concerned he never did anything truly ban worthy. Who knows, maybe he PM'd some angry messages at the mods or something. I wouldn't put it past him.

One thing is certain.  Whatever gets you banned from the Forum is NOT still there.  They delete anything outrageous.

Edited February 17, 2019 by RobRatt

[SuperStone]

Of course, it's entirely possible the cause came from the TCGO itself, not the forums. I don't know if you can be banned here exclusively, but I think certainly an in-game *** would transfer to the website.

 

OP- looking to join the Georgia train?  Welcome aboard!

Edited February 18, 2019 by SuperStone

[ShouldntSeeThis]

As chasista suggested use less flip cards.

 

Would love to, but I'm still playing theme decks exclusively so that element really isn't in my control.

 

FTR, I'm a CS engineer by trade, so I'm well steeped in the vagaries of PRNGs in the digital world.  My sorta-tongue-in-cheek implication with this thread is that each game client has some unique value/property it uses to seed the RNG...and that mine hates me!    

[Sadra]

Would love to, but I'm still playing theme decks exclusively so that element really isn't in my control.

 

FTR, I'm a CS engineer by trade, so I'm well steeped in the vagaries of PRNGs in the digital world.  My sorta-tongue-in-cheek implication with this thread is that each game client has some unique value/property it uses to seed the RNG...and that mine hates me!    

I am not any expert computing but I do have couple of friends that are experts in AI. They actually say that somehow that the shuffling or coin flips are somehow optimised to compensate for the pseudo-randomness that occurs in the online game hence that it is likely that there will be a clustering effect on card draws （try to create a set of 60 and use a randomiser to simulate a deck and you will see what I mean). For some profit-making online card games that have an option of buying stuff online to increase your luck ( a ticket that guarantees a better hand for your character, yes, this actually exists) such as Sanguosha, a Chinese card game, the devs have deliberately tweaked the RNG and will most likely give you a bad hand. As for PTCGO, this is not the case because they don't earn anything from it, so your account is not cursed.

 

However, based on my observations, these are some of the things that you will encounter online:

 

1. The cards that you play one copy of (e.g. brigette, field blower, prism stars) have a higher chance of ending up in your initial hand. I basically had a combination of brigette and thunder mountain every time I played my pikarom deck, YES. EVERY SINGLE GAME. Don't know if its a bug or not but I have noticed that in other decks one copy cards appear quite frequently in my starting hand. Never found this pattern IRL.

 

2. During certain periods of time (evening in my location, China), the card shuffling seems to be repeat the same pattern. Again not necessarily a bad thing, could be great.

 

Other than that, I can't say much.

[Cubone_10]

I guess on the flipside, the guy playing the relentless flames has things going for him. You'd have the chance to have the same luck as that guy I guess.