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Expected Value of Booster Packs


Eden2902
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Hi,

 

I am interested in the expected value of Guardian Rising Booster Packs.

 

Ysterday I finally managed to get my first Lele GX (for 26 GRI Packs). If I had opened those packs, there could be Leles too, but also good GX cards which are ~2-6 GRI packs worth. If I expect a specific probability for specific cards and know the value, is the expected value of a GRI under 1 or why should I not open them? I have 5 GRI over and I am worried, if it isn't betterh to open those packs then wait until I have 20+ more packs. If I would open a pack (fo example) and would get an tectass GX, I could trade it for ~6 packs and so on.

 

I am open for opinions :)

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The general rule of thumb for any sort of collectible/sports cards is that a sealed pack is ALWAYS worth more than the cards inside it (i.e. The Schrödinger's cat paradox).

 

If you're only looking for one particular card from a set it's typically better to trade directly for it rather than opening packs from that set to try to obtain said card, it's better to open packs if you're trying to acquire a larger pool of cards.

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The general rule of thumb for any sort of collectible/sports cards is that a sealed pack is ALWAYS worth more than the cards inside it (i.e. The Schrödinger's cat paradox).

 

If you're only looking for one particular card from a set it's typically better to trade directly for it rather than opening packs from that set to try to obtain said card, it's better to open packs if you're trying to acquire a larger pool of cards.

Ok thx :D Today I get mad and opened my tradeable packages (3x BuSh and 3x GRI) in hope to get ultra rare cards for trade :D

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Congrats on your lele, that's a great addition to nearly any deck.

And about opening the packs, well, thats really too much luck related, you can open 200 packs and get no lele, or maybe you can get a lele out of your first pack, so trading the packs gives you a guarantee for your money, but opening them has a high change of letting you without anything of value. If you open them, there are only 2 outcomes, or you get really lucky and get your lele, or you lose your currency(packs), even if you get a card with some value like a full art rare candy or Full art field blower, you will only get some of your invested value back.

My advice is this, save your tradeable packs for trading, and use your coins to buy untradeable Guardiang Rising Packs, so that way you may eventually get a non tradeable tapu lele, even if you got all the leles you need, because if you get a non tradeable lele, you can sell one of your tradeable leles to get your money back (if you dont need the additional lele).

When you need something specific, the best idea and the most reliable one is to buy the card with packs.

If there is a moment when you don't need anything at all and you want to enjoy some gamble then go ahead and open some packs, but if you are looking for something, it's really unlikely to get it by randomly opening packs. Also you can always open untradeable packs for coins.

Edited by deropa1984
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I second pretty much everything they said.  Use the packs you have to trade for what you need, use coins to get packs you can open.  Personally, I find that the pull rate for GX's is lower here than in real life.  It's like 1 out of 6 packs if you buy a box in store, but I can open a box worth (36 packs) here online and it turns into about 1 out of 9 or 10 packs.  

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I second pretty much everything they said.  Use the packs you have to trade for what you need, use coins to get packs you can open.  Personally, I find that the pull rate for GX's is lower here than in real life.  It's like 1 out of 6 packs if you buy a box in store, but I can open a box worth (36 packs) here online and it turns into about 1 out of 9 or 10 packs.  

This is because there's already an average ratio of how many Ultra Rares you can get in products like Booster Boxes, Blister Packages, Elite Trainer Boxes, and Promo Boxes. While you can still get nothing good in everything except Booster Boxes, there's still an average set by the company that seals the cards. 

 

When you open an online pack, every pack you open is a new event. There is no digital average in how many Ultra Rares you'll pull. Every single time you open a new pack, you're doing something new compared to that last pack you opened. If there is a digital average set, that we don't know about, it's not easy to decipher. 

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This is because there's already an average ratio of how many Ultra Rares you can get in products like Booster Boxes, Blister Packages, Elite Trainer Boxes, and Promo Boxes. While you can still get nothing good in everything except Booster Boxes, there's still an average set by the company that seals the cards. 

 

When you open an online pack, every pack you open is a new event. There is no digital average in how many Ultra Rares you'll pull. Every single time you open a new pack, you're doing something new compared to that last pack you opened. If there is a digital average set, that we don't know about, it's not easy to decipher. 

Yeah, I figured it was something like that, but still, that just makes it worse when you're hunting for that one card you need.  You could theoretically open 200 packs and not get a single decent card. :(

 

But it's oh so tempting to open those packs! :D

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