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RNG Experiment: Attack Coinflips


Sakura150612
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About all this discussion and all, that's already annoying me because no one that's unhappy with the RNG proves any reason for that to happen, i have something to say, that i recalled due to this 4 Trevenants prized:

 

SOME MONTHS AGO IN SOME REAL LIFE REGIONALS FINAL, IN THE SECOND GAME, ONE OF THE FINALISTS HAD 3 ROWLET PRIZED, FACT THAT LOST HIM THE SECOND GAME. IS THE 'HUMAN RNG' BROKEN??? AND WE'RE TALKING AN EVENT THAT INVOLVED MONEY EITHER TO PLAY OR BY WINNING, UNLIKE PTCGO.

This I can confirm, I have seen many regionals/nats and even worlds where the RNG was unfavorable, whether it being bad coinflips, all of a key card prized or Starting with a Shaymin/Hoopa etc 

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About all this discussion and all, that's already annoying me because no one that's unhappy with the RNG proves any reason for that to happen, i have something to say, that i recalled due to this 4 Trevenants prized:

 

SOME MONTHS AGO IN SOME REAL LIFE REGIONALS FINAL, IN THE SECOND GAME, ONE OF THE FINALISTS HAD 3 ROWLET PRIZED, FACT THAT LOST HIM THE SECOND GAME. IS THE 'HUMAN RNG' BROKEN??? AND WE'RE TALKING AN EVENT THAT INVOLVED MONEY EITHER TO PLAY OR BY WINNING, UNLIKE PTCGO.

 

What if he didn't know how to shuffle his deck properly?

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About all this discussion and all, that's already annoying me because no one that's unhappy with the RNG proves any reason for that to happen, i have something to say, that i recalled due to this 4 Trevenants prized:

 

SOME MONTHS AGO IN SOME REAL LIFE REGIONALS FINAL, IN THE SECOND GAME, ONE OF THE FINALISTS HAD 3 ROWLET PRIZED, FACT THAT LOST HIM THE SECOND GAME. IS THE 'HUMAN RNG' BROKEN??? AND WE'RE TALKING AN EVENT THAT INVOLVED MONEY EITHER TO PLAY OR BY WINNING, UNLIKE PTCGO.

also last world finals

the greninja vs mega audino ex matchs

 

match one : grininja draw 0 supporter he top decked talon flame in his first turn as will

match two : he played sycamore each turn and did not drew a single frogdier (or whatever his name was)

 

totally lost the finals so easily because of super bad rng

Edited by UselessEX
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Just being fastidious: RNG = Random Number Generator. Unless a computer/machine was used to shuffle cards in Real Life™ - RNG was not a factor. (or were you lot being facetious?)

 

ITT TL;DR: Bad shuffles happen - when you play more games the likelihood of a bad shuffle increases exponentially, and since players often play many more matches in the PTCGO than they would in Real Life™ they are more likely to encounter and thus remember a bad shuffle (read: Confirmation Bias).

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What if he didn't know how to shuffle his deck properly?

Data mining, my friend.  You're starting with a conclusion and looking for data that supports it.  That's not a good way to find things out.

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What if he didn't know how to shuffle his deck properly?

I'm sorry, what does that have to do with anything?

 

My point, ilustrated with a real life example, is that probability is probability and outcames are outcomes, good or bad, and either you are to calculate it and evaluate the outcome of a possible experiment, or shut your yap about an RNG being broken if you don't have any proof to support it.

 

I'm sorry to act like this but you're being stubborn and it seems like you just want to poison the environment, saying the same things over and over, and yet refusing to play an experiment or justify your opinion in any plausible way.

 

Don't get me wrong, i'm not defending the RNG is absolutely working nor the opposite, because i don't have the proof for that. I play with the hands the game deals me, never concede because of a bad hand, and sometimes get around the match to finish on top. This is me not conforming with bad hands/prizes/flips the RNG deals me.

 

You're free to say whatever you want, you think, you like, you do, but please don't make a fool of yourself, cause i think you're a cool guy.

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Just being fastidious: RNG = Random Number Generator. Unless a computer/machine was used to shuffle cards in Real Life™ - RNG was not a factor. (or were you lot being facetious?)

 

 

 

ITT TL;DR: Bad shuffles happen - when you play more games the likelihood of a bad shuffle increases exponentially, and since players often play many more matches in the PTCGO than they would in Real Life™ they are more likely to encounter and thus remember a bad shuffle (read: Confirmation Bias).

I meant RNG just as an expression to enphasize the irl experience i described. I know RNG involves a machine, and you understood what i meant.

 

 

 

Let's just be clear, ********************* happens, and ******************* happens, and we're discussing nothing here, unless someone proves otherwise. And not via showing the RNG code like TRB suggested, but via a viable experiment including all contextes of RNG in PTCGO and with an acceptable sample which is not 100 nor 1000.

 

 

 

TRB if you wanna change the world you gotta prove it's wrong first, otherwise what are you going to change?

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I hear you all, i really do.

Am i being stubborn? Yes.

Am i trying to poison the environment? No.

Am i in the mood of performing data mining? Not really.

 

What I'm saying though, while I'm playing the game every day, with different decks, on different modes, strange things are happening pretty often.

Just because i don't record anything, it doesn't mean I'm lying.

 

Am i having a wrong approach? Could be.

Am i trying to hurt the game? Definitely not.

Am i interested in changing the world? Not by a long shot.

 

I'm just debating with you all, without having some beef with any of you or having a secret personal agenda.

After all, it's just a game.

 

Mimikyu da yo,

TRB

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A conversation from, you know where...

 

User 1.


If you play tons of games of course you'll have bad hands. You can't always have the nuts or god draws, there is a percentage that determines your bad hands and the more you play, the more it's prone to occur.

TPCi_Samhayne


Pretty much this .

People also tend to remember the bad a bit more than the normal or even the super good. Of course, on the internet, the bad is what get's dished on.

Of course, if you play a deck a bunch, you're going to see all sorts of draws, including bad ones. That is the nature of the beast.

User 2.

 

Funny cause I had an 83% win rate deck that removed almost all those variables over 500 games. Then as soon as the new UI came around(you know the one I'm talking about, when you dumbed down the PC client for iPad users leaving Android users in the dust for quite a long time) the deck algorithms got all out of wack and had more defined parameters and was not nearly as random. I'm sure you're not on the coding side, but that doesn't rule out the fact that you have a brain and can pick up on patterns. This game is designed to keep currency circulating into it, otherwise it would no longer be profitable enough to sustain. People think you just make a fair game engine that is not even remotely influenced by business plans and quarterly reports.

 

I'll just leave it here...

 

*grabs popcorn 

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A conversation from, you know where...

 

I'll just leave it here...

 

*grabs popcorn 

I don't know where, but i find it interesting.

 

It must be true of course, that the game exists to produce profits via purchase income. I don't see anyone managing (is this the word?) a game that gives so much trouble with bugs and patches etc as this one, just for the fun of it!

In any case, i don't see how this can be directly related to the RNG issue... does having a bad draw consecutive times make me insta-concede and waste money to buy tokens and get packs, or tickets to play more tournaments? Maybe that's a reason, but i don't know if the percentage of people i'm talking in this particular case represents anything in the game sales.

What other reasons could there be that could relate a possibly rigged RNG with profit?

Don't get me wrong, i personaly don't find anything wrong with it... for me it has always been balanced in every fields.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I used to question this too, but then I realized that luck has absolutely everything to do with it. Either you believe in the coin flip with clenched teeth or you should simply stay away with cards that use this effect if your sportsmanship wavers. Thanks for the thorough research!

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  • 4 weeks later...

OP doesn't understand the problem. The problem is that people think the math is different on different pokemon such as litwick always sleeping tails the first time you use it or gastly's poison sleep seldom working. People think the pokemon have different programming to them. The other problem is predictable heads or tails and at the most inopportune and game changing moments. People observing the actual game changing because of a coin flip predictably has NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR EXPERIMENT which would be that the coin flip doesn't represent a 50/50 mix? this data is hilarious I flipped tails I flipped heads LOL you just don't get it. Pokémon shame on you for advertising this self gratifying garbage LOL   

Edited by nstimmell
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OP doesn't understand the problem. The problem is that people think the math is different on different pokemon such as litwick always sleeping tails the first time you use it or gastly's poison sleep seldom working. People think the pokemon have different programming to them. The other problem is predictable heads or tails and at the most inopportune and game changing moments. People observing the actual game changing because of a coin flip predictably has NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR EXPERIMENT which would be that the coin flip doesn't represent a 50/50 mix? this data is hilarious I flipped tails I flipped heads LOL you just don't get it. Pokémon shame on you for advertising this self gratifying garbage LOL   

Sooooo...  You think they spend an extra ton of work to program each card with a coin flip to have a different ratio?  And they go out of their way to ensure bad flips always happen when you need better ones?  Because... they hate their customers?

 

You do realize how silly that sounds, right?

 

I honestly have no idea what you're getting at.

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Sooooo...  You think they spend an extra ton of work to program each card with a coin flip to have a different ratio?  And they go out of their way to ensure bad flips always happen when you need better ones?  Because... they hate their customers?

 

You do realize how silly that sounds, right?

 

I honestly have no idea what you're getting at.

Maybe I read him wrong, but I don't think that he is trying to claim that each card is coded differently. However, foolish of me, that I didn't understand what he is trying to say either :/

 

As for the RNG, the RNG on pokemon works differently than in real world, because in the world of computers nothing can be 100% random. Randomness is achieved through mechanical malfunctions in the servers itself, by using it in the coding. On PTCGO, the RNG always targets to be 50% accurate. For example, there will be times when AI will get 15 heads in 1 game and right in the next game he will get 15 tails -__-! That does sound weird, but you can't expect any RNG to be absolutely accurate to real life, because computers can't generate randomness on their own.

 

A long while ago, TPCi had a special challenge for flipping 100 tails and the result was abrupt, like long streaks of heads and tails in the same match but it always ends up t0 50% exactly.

 

All that I pointed was only observation, it may vary, but as far as I have seen this is how most randomness coding work.

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Sooooo...  You think they spend an extra ton of work to program each card with a coin flip to have a different ratio?  And they go out of their way to ensure bad flips always happen when you need better ones?  Because... they hate their customers?

 

You do realize how silly that sounds, right?

 

I honestly have no idea what you're getting at.

 

I'm not sure, but i think he was trying to say we don't have to prove the RNG "accuracy" is 50/50, because that's not the problem in most players minds. I think he's saying many players think the RNG is rigged in specific cards, and that we have to convince them otherwise, that the RNG is always 50/50 in the end is a fact.

 

 

...

 

Yeah i guess that's the way it works. I've come to realize that as much luck i may have in some games with coin flips, it always compensates in the other direction, even if in the next day, so the opposite also happens.

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I'm not sure, but i think he was trying to say we don't have to prove the RNG "accuracy" is 50/50, because that's not the problem in most players minds. I think he's saying many players think the RNG is rigged in specific cards, and that we have to convince them otherwise, that the RNG is always 50/50 in the end is a fact.

 

Maybe I read him wrong, but I don't think that he is trying to claim that each card is coded differently. However, foolish of me, that I didn't understand what he is trying to say either :/

 

 That was my original thought.  The first couple of sentences certainly sound that way.  But the rest of it kind of changed my mind.

 

It would be nice if nsTimmell could clarify his/her position. :)

 

Also, that Sakura-hate is pretty nasty, so either way nsTimmell needs to tone it down.

Edited by SuperStone
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That was my original thought. The first couple of sentences certainly sound that way. But the rest of it kind of changed my mind.

 

It would be nice if nsTimmell could clarify his/her position. :)

 

Also, that Sakura-hate is pretty nasty, so either way nsTimmell needs to tone it down.

Let me clarify something.

There is absolutely no hate about Sakura as a person or as a player.

 

The whole controversy is about his experiment.

Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Bashing Sakura as a person or as a player would be totally nonsense.

His experiment though, can be seriously questioned.

 

Just watch the latest video from DarkIntergral.

Edited by The_Real_Bug
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Certainly it can be questioned, and it should be... by anyone willing to choose some aspect of the RNG and test it exhaustively.

 

DIG's video's are not representative of the overall results of coin flips, or even of the effectiveness of his decks. He shows what he wants to show, but there's a lot of data left on the cutting room floor.

 

If your overall flips are coming up 50/50, and some of the cards have an actual bias one way or the other, then you're using both positive and negative bias cards to get that balance.

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I'm just withdrawing from this discussion. It won't be settled, ever.

 

I mean, i'd ike to say a couple things, but someone would answer in a healthy discussion manner, after that someone would disagree that comment, and so forth until the end of ages.

 

I wish you all an enjoyable discussion!

Edited by Cuqk
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I'm just withdrawing from this discussion. It won't be settled, ever.

 

I mean, i'd ike to say a couple things, but someone would answer in a healthy discussion manner, after that someone would disagree that comment, and so forth until the end of ages.

 

I wish you all an enjoyable discussion!

 

You'll back eventually, everybody does.

We'll be waiting  :P

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  • 2 weeks later...

Very well thought out OP. However, there are 2 important points to this discussion that I don't think have been brought up:

(FULL DISCLOSURE: While I am an experienced programmer, I should be clear that I have nothing to do with any Pokemon software development, nor have I had the privilege of seeing any of their source code.)

 

1. The RNG Is A Myth

First and foremost, it must be understood that "Random Number Generator" is very much a misnomer, and frankly is not a real thing. In programming nothing is random. Computers and their languages simply don't work this way. It is a literal impossibility. There is ALWAYS a pattern in the mathematics of an algorithm. Modern day "RNG"s.simply use a pattern complex enough that only a computer, and not the human brain on its own, is capable of computing. As it relates here, a computer game can produce a fairly close facsimile to the randomness of play a card game in real life, but emulating this randomness to 1:1 perfection is impossible.

 

2. The Coin Flip Is Skewed

I do not dispute the data in the OP, in fact that data indeed notes a tiny anomaly. This fits with my own observations of how the software works. There is one thing specifically related to coin flips that concerns me a little, but based on the data and what we know, it causes only a minor anomaly at best.

If you watch the game board closely you will notice something about the utilization of the coins: whenever a coinflip happens the coin returns to the board ON THE SIDE IT LANDED ON during the coin flip. In any other game or scenario that uses a coin flip, this procedure would be unacceptable and even possibly viewed as cheating. That being said, given the fact that true randomness in a computer program is impossible, (as mentioned above), it is quite possible this was done to better achieve the sort of results noted in the OP data. Therefore changing this behaviour of the coins in the software could cause harm rather than help.

 

The data regarding deck shuffling would be very interesting, but as the OP said, it is much more complex to sort through.

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1. The RNG Is A Myth

How dare you call our one and only RNGesus a myth?

 

Jokes aside, your post is quite interesting.

 

I've had my part in this conversation a while ago and I don't want to be involved in it again, but I feel tempted to say a few things:

 

Coin flips in PTCGO are NOT by any means always random. I think my 1.5 year of playing experience has given me enough information towards that statement. I am not saying it is rigged. I am not saying it's broken. All I am saying is that there is a pattern that can be identified in some cases which -unless I am the most fortunate or unfortunate person on earth- cannot be random.

 

When conducting an experiment about something that vague and chaotic as the coin flips in a game with countless different possibilities and situations you can't get a definite result. Sakura did a remarkable thing using time and effort to prove that the coin flips after a large amount of battles tend to be 50/50 and the results showed exactly that.

 

While Sakura's experiment is something unique and admirable, unfortunately it only covers one tiny bit of data regarding the coin flips in PTCGO. We would need a hundred "Sakuras" in order to have a clearer idea of what's actually happening in that matter.

 

What I suggest? Trust the developers!

 

They don't have a secret agenda, they don't have a group of privileged people that have been programmed to get all the coin flips. We are playing the exact same game with its exact same rules. My "rigged" coin will be your "rigged" coin the next battle. If you have experienced a bad streak of luck cheer up! A good streak of luck is just round the corner :)

 

Thanks for reading.

Edited by Rainbow-XN
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For those that think Sakura's experiment proved that PTCGO's RNG is perfect, there you go:

 

In programming nothing is random. Computers and their languages simply don't work this way. It is a literal impossibility. There is ALWAYS a pattern in the mathematics of an algorithm. Modern day "RNG"s.simply use a pattern complex enough that only a computer, and not the human brain on its own, is capable of computing. As it relates here, a computer game can produce a fairly close facsimile to the randomness of play a card game in real life, but emulating this randomness to 1:1 perfection is impossible.

 

RNG is the most despicable thing on video-games.

 

If you deny that there is a pattern, then you are either being ignorant about the art of programming or you feel the need to believe that everything is balanced in 100% ratio in order for you to keep playing.

 

I don't care how many players will perform an experiment similar to Sakura's.

Unless a developer will show off the code, i'll be an RNG-doubter.

 

And since i don't have the right to call the RNG flawed because i can't prove it, nobody else except the developers can call the RNG perfect because they can't prove it either.

 

On a final note, i'll give more credit to person like Startropic1 instead of Sakura due to the fact that the first one can really explain you the dark side of the art of programming.

An end-user will always be an end-user that sees things that the way the developers want them to be seen.

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Very well thought out OP. However, there are 2 important points to this discussion that I don't think have been brought up:

(FULL DISCLOSURE: While I am an experienced programmer, I should be clear that I have nothing to do with any Pokemon software development, nor have I had the privilege of seeing any of their source code.)

 

1. The RNG Is A Myth

2. The Coin Flip Is Skewed

If you watch the game board closely you will notice something about the utilization of the coins: whenever a coinflip happens the coin returns to the board ON THE SIDE IT LANDED ON during the coin flip.

1. Of course there is no truly random number involved, but as an experienced programmer, you're certainly aware that there is in fact a thing CALLED a "random number generator," and it does a good enough job-- good enough that you wouldn't be able to distinguish it from a true random number by the results. Also, be aware that physical coin flips are not random, and are influenced by the flipper.

 

2. As an experienced programmer you should be able to figure out that the game's RNG does not simulate the physics of a coin flip, as it's a card game and not a coin flip simulator. It generates a number, 0 or 1, and plays an animation for that result. The coin is placed with that side up solely as a display of what the result was.

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1. Of course there is no truly random number involved, but as an experienced programmer, you're certainly aware that there is in fact a thing CALLED a "random number generator," and it does a good enough job-- good enough that you wouldn't be able to distinguish it from a true random number by the results.

 

2. As an experienced programmer you should be able to figure out that the game's RNG does not simulate the physics of a coin flip, as it's a card game and not a coin flip simulator. It generates a number, 0 or 1, and plays an animation for that result. The coin is placed with that side up solely as a display of what the result was.

1. I did explain that modern algorithms have complex enough pattern(s) that one can't discern it without a computer. I did mention the name "random number generator", and why it's nonsense to use the term random.

 

2. Ok, I failed to fully explain the coin thing. Not only does it sit on the board on the side it landed in the last coin flip, but it also STARTS the next coin flip from this same position! Again, I also said this phenomena seems to have little effect on the results of probability. You may be right that it is merely a feature for show. However let me show you how the code can match the images:

 

The code of course would use binary--1 and 0. Let's say

Heads = 1

Tails = 0

 

When you trigger the coin flip, the algorithm starts from either 1 or 0 before it starts "randomly" generating the final 1 or 0. Which number it stars with--even with a tiny pool size of 2 possibilities, can have an effect on the outcome. In this instance I will reiterate that the difference seems to be very minute.

010101010

101010101

1010101010

0101010101

Bear in mind the above binary lines are super simplified. The lines generated in the game's code are most certainly massively larger.

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