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Mystery chest in winner prize wheel


Hartal

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I think that there should be more than 1 mystery chest in each winners prize wheel because its really difficult to get mystery chests for promos and stuff with only 1 mystery chest.

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All of the items from the Mystery Chest on the Victor's Prize Wheel are tradeable, so that is another avenue to pursue to obtain those cards.

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My point is, there should me more mystery chests in these wheels. cause there is only about less than 10% chance to get those mystery chests in a victor's prize wheel.

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Honestly I'm not that sure if the wheel needs one more slot where you might get a mystery box. It would help you on the first look, but eventually it didn't.

 

Here is the reason why:

The [winners] bonus wheel has the general problem that for the slots where 2 or 3 of the same are available (5 and 10 tokens, tournament ticket) it always spins on the same spot.

I pointed out to this problem in other threads before but since then nothing changed. E.g. you have 3 5-token slots but for the entire week from the last change of the bonus wheel due to the new mystery box cards only one 5-token slot was gettable as the outcome. The one that is right next to the 15-token slot - both the other 5-token slots never came. The 10-token slot next to the mystery box was the same as impossible outcome.

 

For now we have 10 slots on the wheel with 6 different outcomes but 4 slots aren't gettable. Yes they are the same and it won't matter if I get the slot with 5 tokens next to the 15-token slot or if I get the 5-token slot next to the 10-token slots (for the next wheel the order is changed - but I'm sure I will have 4 not gettable slots again).

 

And to go around any doubt: I noticed the outcomes and have a real overwiev and if I don't get one field of the bonus wheel in about 200 spins that is definitely no bad luck or coincidence.

 

 

Short recap: An added mystery box slot isn't helpful as long as the wheel is broken with 4 parts that never have a chance to come.

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Well i was meaning they should add a 'gettable' mystery chest.

Yes, I understand what you said and hence I explained why another slot isn't needed. The wheel has to become first a wheel where every spot can become a gettable outcome.

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I think increasing the rates for the promos would be nice.

 

I haven't gotten a promo since BW01 Snivy like 5 weeks ago. I've gotten numerous 50 tokens, and 2-3 tickets which is nice, but there is no way for me to know what is the next promo unless it's obvious (i.e. Snivy week 1, Tepig Week 2, etc)

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Honestly I'm not that sure if the wheel needs one more slot where you might get a mystery box. It would help you on the first look, but eventually it didn't.

 

Here is the reason why:

The [winners] bonus wheel has the general problem that for the slots where 2 or 3 of the same are available (5 and 10 tokens, tournament ticket) it always spins on the same spot.

I pointed out to this problem in other threads before but since then nothing changed. E.g. you have 3 5-token slots but for the entire week from the last change of the bonus wheel due to the new mystery box cards only one 5-token slot was gettable as the outcome. The one that is right next to the 15-token slot - both the other 5-token slots never came. The 10-token slot next to the mystery box was the same as impossible outcome.

 

For now we have 10 slots on the wheel with 6 different outcomes but 4 slots aren't gettable. Yes they are the same and it won't matter if I get the slot with 5 tokens next to the 15-token slot or if I get the 5-token slot next to the 10-token slots (for the next wheel the order is changed - but I'm sure I will have 4 not gettable slots again).

 

And to go around any doubt: I noticed the outcomes and have a real overwiev and if I don't get one field of the bonus wheel in about 200 spins that is definitely no bad luck or coincidence.

 

 

Short recap: An added mystery box slot isn't helpful as long as the wheel is broken with 4 parts that never have a chance to come.

 

Have you kept a complete account of every wheel spin?  The server could be programmed to have a higher probability for the items that appear twice on the wheel, but the animation only uses one of them.

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Have you kept a complete account of every wheel spin?  The server could be programmed to have a higher probability for the items that appear twice on the wheel, but the animation only uses one of them.

First of all: the games I played and the wheel always stops at the same points and at some point you ask yourself: why does the wheel always lands on this particular 5-token slot and never goes on the other two?

 

 

Of course I don't have a complete set but I had written down my last winner's wheel bonus spins. So basically I can say now all about the probability and the outcomes. Are they normal distributed or not, have the 5 / 10-token and tournament ticket slots higher percentage as the other fields - so is this like you said when they might have a non-explanationed higher probability eventually.

 

If you have interest I will post my complete set of researches here as I think my sample is good already.

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Mefftu, is the probability mass function for getting the mystery box uniform?

 

I mean, suppose there are 12 rewards in the roulette (Mystery Box, 1 ticket x 2 , 5 coins x 3, 10 coins x 3, 15 coins x 3). It is only a supposition, I don't remember the prizes.

Is the probability to get 5 coins 3/12 = 1/4 or just 1/5 (one over Mystery box, ticket, 5 coins, 10 coins, 15 coins)?

 

I think that, besides the graphics is broken, the probability mass funcion is correct in order to maintain the difficulty (less than 10% of chance) to get the mistery box.

 

But I don't really know if what I suspect is true =)

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It was multiple mystery box, but after so many of THOSE player complaining about losers wheel prize 

 

Its time for wheel for victor`s get a fair overhaul just like the loser wheels.

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Mefftu, is the probability mass function for getting the mystery box uniform?

 

I mean, suppose there are 12 rewards in the roulette (Mystery Box, 1 ticket x 2 , 5 coins x 3, 10 coins x 3, 15 coins x 3). It is only a supposition, I don't remember the prizes.

Is the probability to get 5 coins 3/12 = 1/4 or just 1/5 (one over Mystery box, ticket, 5 coins, 10 coins, 15 coins)?

 

I think that, besides the graphics is broken, the probability mass funcion is correct in order to maintain the difficulty (less than 10% of chance) to get the mistery box.

 

But I don't really know if what I suspect is true =)

Hey carlospfj,

 

the idea of the 'graphic error' I haven't thought of but you may follow the statistical calculations now and see the result.

 

 

 

Ok, I made the following statistical calculations for a test if the outcomes of the [winners] bonus wheel are normal distributed.

 

After 600 results I got the following amount for each slot:

 

25 tokens: 57

15 tokens: 67

10 tokens: 126

5 tokens: 173

ticket: 112

box: 65

 

Now it is known that the 5-token slot has 3, and the 10-token slot + tournament ticket have each 2 slots.

 

Lets for this calculation put the former mentioned graphical error aside (only one slot of the 5-token, 10-token and ticket always shows up – 4 parts never come as a result) and split the respective fields into two or three with the same number of results.

 

This means the following table is the beginning for our test:

 

25 tokens: 57

15 tokens: 67

101 tokens: 63

102 tokens: 63

51 tokens: 57.67 [i know this isn't possible but it makes no difference as it's only used for calculation]

52 tokens: 57.67

53 tokens: 57.66

ticket1: 56

ticket2: 56

box: 65

 

 

Test for normal distribution


 

Main question: Are the slots of the [winners] bonus wheel normal distributed with a level of significance 5%?

 

H0: F0 = F0    H0: wheel slots are normal distributed

H1: F0 ≠ F0    H1: wheel slots aren’t normal distributed

 

n = 600     α = 0.05        k = 10

 

fp(xi) = 1 / k = 1 / 10

hei = n / k = 600 / 10 = 60

 

k – number of wheel slots

hei – expected amount for each wheel slot

hoi – observed amount for each wheel slot

 

test statistic: X2 (here is what I'm missing the greek alphabet, X2 [Chi square that is] or the sum function [sF here])

 

            k

X2 = [sF (hoi – hei)2] / hei = [(57 – 60)2 + (67 – 60)2 + ... + (65 – 60)2] / 60 = 2.339

          i = 1

 

Critical value: X2c = X21 – α; v v (this is not the latin 'v' but should be the greek 'ny' or N as the capital letter)

v = k – m – 1 = 9 (m – number of estimated parameter, here it is zero)

 

X21 – α; v = X21 – 0.05; 9 = 16.919 (value out of statistical tables)

 

2.339 < 16.919

H0 can’t be refused here. The differences in between the expected and observed amounts are random. This proves the wheel slots are normal distributed.

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Mefftu, u were like Eiinstein in those maths :), could u tell about them in a more simpler way.

 

[...]

H0 can’t be refused here. The differences in between the expected and observed amounts are random. This proves the wheel slots are normal distributed.

The last sentences are the proof atleast that the outcomes of each of the slots on the wheel are completely random [i still don't get it why I subscript and supersribt some numbers / characters but only some appear like they should appear - as in "H" and "0" the zero isn't subscribted (H0 it is the "null hypothesis")], say the wheel is comparable with a dice that each number will occur in similar terms if you roll the dice (or spin the wheel).

Basically you get one Mystery Box for 10 vs games wins  - but yeah you can have periods where you might have to wait longer for one. I was surprised too of some sequences of wheel outcomes that read really surprising.

 

 

I wasn't sure at first as I said in post no. 4 of this thread if the wheel is broken - because some slots only appear but never come. Then carlospfj suggested rightly that this may just be a graphical error and my researches on all [winners] wheel outcomes with the previous statistical test proved that we have a correct wheel here.

 

 

Now it makes sense to replace one other slot, say one of the two single Tournament Tickets slots with a 2nd Mystery Box as you suggested with this thread Hartal.

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Well mefftu u showed that the wheels r random after an observation of 300 matches, but in my last 50 matches(approximately can be +/-5) I won just 1 mystery chest. From that, even worse, i got 2 tournament tickets, so am i been unlucky for all these matches?

 

 

 

 

PS: I am extremely lucky with losers prize wheel though, got 2 mystery chests from 7 losses.

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I just looked through my full sequences of wheel results (luckily I always made rows with 20 single outcomes to not get confused too much) and can tell you, you are not alone Hartal!

 

I had in this 600 results three long streaks of just one mystery box in 43, 39 and another in 37 winner's bonus wheels.

The longest run without any mystery box on the winner's bonus wheel was 29, and another streak took me to 26 spins with 'only tokens or single tournament tickets'.

 

But it was evened out in the longer run with periods of 3 or 4 boxes in just 8 - 10 spins (the record was 3 consecutive boxes for me). For such random elements all what counts is the log run. The statistic rule of big numbers comes eventually into affect here.

And same as most of us remember specific more on bad accidents and incidents in our lifes - from times even very detailled - we most of the time forget when we had luck. Here it is spans with more boxes in fewer games. This we see as common and given and comment this for our own with 'yeah it had to happen now' or 'ok, I take the box even I had one just two wins ago'.

 

 

So I had some times with and without the luck of getting the boxes, but with more games noone can't complain. And as you added on the other hand you had a nice sequence as for comparison with the loser's bonus wheel.

While on rain follows sunshine you will surely get more boxes in fewer games in the next time.

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All of the items from the Mystery Chest on the Victor's Prize Wheel are tradeable, so that is another avenue to pursue to obtain those cards.

 

I agree with alex sir . Promos and packs in wheel are tradeable that makes Victor's Prize Wheel more unique then the Loser's Prize Wheel . And i feel that's its not too much hard to land on mystery box , out of 10 games that i play i usually land on mystery box 2-3 times and in the box there are 2-3 tickets (sometimes 4) or 50 tokens (well promos are really hard to fetch for me) . So everything is fair for me but adding 1 more mystery box in the wheel will be not bad atleast it will increase the chances of getting promo's which i need for me collection. I already missed few of them  :mellow: .

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The last time i got a card from mystery chest was legend box about a month ago, also a locked 1. So i think another chest would be really good.

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