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Mathematics Guide


SkyEventideXO

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Has anyone made a mathematics guide for pokemon TCG? I am rather new to the game and I find myself reminded of Blackjack and Chess. Probability is extremely important in the game of blackjack. But pokemon TCG includes an extention to probability (i.e the use of deductive logic to determine the best move/strategy to procure a certain card). 

 

I'm thinking of making a guide, but do not know if anyone ever has (or if anyone would even be interested).

 

Using certain principles, I seem to do much better and win more often - thinking about things logically rather than rushing my moves. There also appears to be an element of poker in the game; your opponent considers how strong your hand is.

 

Thoughts?

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I don't think it's possible as you have no idea how many energy, trainer or pokemon cards a person has in a deck. THere are too many unknown variables. Yes they have 60 cards but that's all you know. I may be wrong but I don't see a way you can mathematically calculate this without knowing how a person has built their deck.  At least in card games such as poker and blackjack, you know how many face cards or aces you have a chance of pulling.   

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yeah sky.. that's a great idea.. it's often overlooked as to how certain cards can have small advantages over others- for example cards which allow you to look into your deck allow you to figure out which cards have been prized and adjust your strategy accordingly..

 

and also I have seen that end game thinning of deck with battle compressor really helps your chances of drawing a good card

 

since in a battle between better players, it boils down to finer details, i'd say a guide about pokemath would be a great idea

 

just one thing.. could you change the thread name?

 

mathematics guide sounds less likely to spread these views rather than something like "a few pokemath tips to winning your battles" i.e. a more interesting name which expresses how important it is (I don't think the title does this thread justice)

 

anyways, I would love to see this thread progress and i'm sure many others would too

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Has anyone made a mathematics guide for pokemon TCG? I am rather new to the game and I find myself reminded of Blackjack and Chess. Probability is extremely important in the game of blackjack. But pokemon TCG includes an extention to probability (i.e the use of deductive logic to determine the best move/strategy to procure a certain card). 

 

I'm thinking of making a guide, but do not know if anyone ever has (or if anyone would even be interested).

 

Using certain principles, I seem to do much better and win more often - thinking about things logically rather than rushing my moves. There also appears to be an element of poker in the game; your opponent considers how strong your hand is.

 

Thoughts?

If you talk about Probability, well here is the catch. You cannot have more than 1/15th event for a card to be drawn and on top of that the PTCGO Client doesn't follow probability perfectly. For example I created a deck with 20 Pokemon and 15 Draw supporters to draw cards. By the law of probability, I must have got a draw supporter every 4 cards, which meant that I should even get it in my first turn. But unfortunately I needed to change this deck since I had 5-6 Supporter drought turns ! What I had noticed was, when I reduce the number of pokemon the same number of supporters were like 2-3 in same turn :P So I definitely don't think probability is really perfectly applied in this game. For other things that you mentioned is what makes great players. If you see a great player playing a Donphan deck and a rookie. Consider having their deck same. Still the better player will win, because he has experience, skills and on top of that the maths of turns and damages is what makes him win. Some fortune considering like we do in chess, supposing what would the opponent does, also applies in this game. And even if the better player has a bad hand he still can turn the game. So Maybe I will be interested in this topic. It will be beneficial for new players so good job :)

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I love this idea. I liken pokemon to poker an awful lot in terms of odds, draws, outs and reading your opponent.  Being able to utilize like even a professors letters and looking at all cards gives you an idea whats in your prizes, and seriously has saved me a lot of times.  While the complexity may frighten some people off, I love this idea and look forward to your development of it.

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I love this idea. I liken pokemon to poker an awful lot in terms of odds, draws, outs and reading your opponent.  Being able to utilize like even a professors letters and looking at all cards gives you an idea whats in your prizes, and seriously has saved me a lot of times.  While the complexity may frighten some people off, I love this idea and look forward to your development of it.

Well actually its a really good trick. It has saved my Skyla\Computer Search many times :D

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I have a mathematical formula for winning in Pokemon. Its very simple. Just mathematical take all 6 of your prizes before your opponent does. If you do that everytime you will be fine. 

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haha bulba technically you can still lose with that.. if both pokemon get knocked out,  you can draw your 6th prize first, yet still be put into sudden death and lose :P

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Has anyone made a mathematics guide for pokemon TCG? I am rather new to the game and I find myself reminded of Blackjack and Chess. Probability is extremely important in the game of blackjack. But pokemon TCG includes an extention to probability (i.e the use of deductive logic to determine the best move/strategy to procure a certain card). 

 

I'm thinking of making a guide, but do not know if anyone ever has (or if anyone would even be interested).

 

Using certain principles, I seem to do much better and win more often - thinking about things logically rather than rushing my moves. There also appears to be an element of poker in the game; your opponent considers how strong your hand is.

 

Thoughts?

 

I guess the only thing is that you can calculate the starting hand to some extend in terms of what is the percentage of having one of my 4 copies of my favourite Pokémon in my starting hand so that I can definitely start with it - compare this to the percentage of say you don't want to have just a Jirachi EX as a starter which is always terrible as the onliest starting Pokémon.

 

The same question you can ask yourself then what is the probability of having say one supporter in my hand when I play say 3 of that specific 1st turn wanted supporter (like Pokémon Fan Club is very useful on turn one while Teammates is always useless in your starting hand for the very first turn - and no I exclude the new Latios 1st turn attack here).

 

[...]

 

For other things that you mentioned is what makes great players. If you see a great player playing a Donphan deck and a rookie. Consider having their deck same. Still the better player will win, because he has experience, skills and on top of that the maths of turns and damages is what makes him win. Some fortune considering like we do in chess, supposing what would the opponent does, also applies in this game. And even if the better player has a bad hand he still can turn the game. So Maybe I will be interested in this topic. It will be beneficial for new players so good job :)

Just to add one thing here: I think you can never compare when letting two players play with the same deck as even the rookie can have the luck and select say the right tool card or special energy when the other player gets on the receiving end because of his early choice - and the obvious reason the draw and shuffling affects the following cards and turns.

 

But to compare a more than 50% game of luck - which Pokémon alongside with most other card games is - isn't the best thing here to shout out loud to one of the oldest games in the human history - talking about chess then.

In chess the rookie will always lose to a Grand Master simply to his pre-adjusting of moves he knows and the knowledge about similar positions he had in the past. So for chess there is no luck involved besides some physical components that can occur between players in say lower good ELO-categories when playing against amateurs.

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"But to compare a more than 50% game of luck - which Pokémon alongside with most other card games is - isn't the best thing here to shout out loud to one of the oldest games in the human history - talking about chess then.

 

In chess the rookie will always lose to a Grand Master simply to his pre-adjusting of moves he knows and the knowledge about similar positions he had in the past. So for chess there is no luck involved besides some physical components that can occur between players in say lower good ELO-categories when playing against amateurs."

 

though this is true mefftu, there are ways a player can measure some statistics and be able to read his luck better and as a result take better decisions..

 

for example if you run 2-2 gard-ex in a fairy deck and one is ko-ed and you don't have 'tisse set up, you could check if your m-gard is prized before attaching your energy to a gardevoir only for it to be stranded

 

or to check how many energy there are left in your deck before you start powering up a black kyurem only for it to be stuck on a hilariously underpowered 3 energy instead of powering up a keldeo-ex which can hit for a fair amount (nearly double the damage)

 

though these are only useful in around 10% of your games, the amount they matter to your game is pretty large and makes your deck more consistent.. and as a result I would like to see this thread develop

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Hey SkyEventideXO, it's always cool to see players try to improve strategy. :)

 

If there is any way probability guidlines, or other mathematical tools can be used to improve my game I'm all for it. But with that being said...I don't see how...

 

I'm curious as to what tips or guidelines related to deductive logic can be posted as concrete information.

 

Even if there were some sort of basic probability questions that can be answered, how could a player utilize that information practically in-game?

 

@mefftu

I don't believe Pokemon and chess were being "compared", I think SkyEventide was wondering if probability plays as big a part in Pokemon as it does in chess or poker.

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...........

 

Just to add one thing here: I think you can never compare when letting two players play with the same deck as even the rookie can have the luck and select say the right tool card or special energy when the other player gets on the receiving end because of his early choice - and the obvious reason the draw and shuffling affects the following cards and turns.

 

But to compare a more than 50% game of luck - which Pokémon alongside with most other card games is - isn't the best thing here to shout out loud to one of the oldest games in the human history - talking about chess then.

In chess the rookie will always lose to a Grand Master simply to his pre-adjusting of moves he knows and the knowledge about similar positions he had in the past. So for chess there is no luck involved besides some physical components that can occur between players in say lower good ELO-categories when playing against amateurs.

Well for the luck, we can't do anything :P Because I myself experienced supporter droughts that, I can't even turn the game, but even if you don't get supporter, if you have a Lysandre's Trump Card, play it. This is because it shuffles your deck, and has brought good luck to me many times :D This was about changing luck. Now to the Pokemon thing being compared to chess. Well I didn't mean really comparing chess. I just meant you need to play like you are playing chess. Well as you said a rookie will lose to a Grand Master is wrong ! Some Googled information is there, where you do see 10 Year boys defeating Grand Masters. well I know they are not rookies, but if you observe the game pretty carefully and calculate every move, its too helpuful to prevent your self from being Check-mated too fast like 2-3 turns. This is even more helpful in Pokemon as playing with those tactics plus if you have some luck, you  can easily win :) I hope I made it clear now :D Last post was a bit confusing I think !

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[...]

 

@mefftu

 

I don't believe Pokemon and chess were being "compared", I think SkyEventide was wondering if probability plays as big a part in Pokemon as it does in chess or poker.

I said in my earlier post already that the probability can be used as I would say only the way what kind of starting hands you have - saying I need one specific supporter and to calculate those chances - or to start with a specific Pokémon to ensure I can say evolve Rayquaza EX with its Spirit Link in the first turn. Here you can use the easy calculations about combinatorics which is all what is needed for calculating the drawing hands.

(just for the record: the orignial creator SkyEventide didn't raised the question about comparing chess and Pokémon)

 

 

I just wanted to point out that chess hasn't anything to do with probability as moves aren't done like a probability of drawing into the right card like playing a supporter because the moves aren't dependent on anything that has to do with luck. It isn't a luck game as pure card games like poker are (which is indeed more than 80% luck based - everyone can come to a tournament there and win it with pure luck if he or she just knows the rules - in chess you need a specific game level if you want to compete successfully against better players) because anything can come with a next card but not in chess though where the brain always wins and the game knowledge about strategic and tactics is the most important part.

 

In chess one bad move can you put completely on the back foot or even small mistakes are enough that you can resign immediately where a card game can draw you despite doing a bad move even one turn later the needed card. In Pokémon I can say forget to play my Enhanced Hammer for an existing DCE on the board but if my opponent has to set up his board more and needs more energies to play I can even play the Enhanced Hammer the nuext turn while that doesn't affect his position if the Pokémon still can't attack.

 

I think that only this easy example showcases that chances and probabilities exists in card games that rely on drawing to win with the game goes on (like Pokémon or the so called gambling game poker) and not all errors can be punished in the very next move unlike in chess.

 

 

As an actual chess amateur with an ELO-rating a shade below 2000 I know what I'm talking about when it comes to chess and luck, which only comes to mind when putting together the said thing about psychological (of course not physical - my bad from earlier) components like pressure of winning the last game in a tournament which leds to a riskier play or playing rapid chess. But those aren't the regular circumstances as outside components always plays havoc with the own usual game play.

 

Well for the luck, we can't do anything :)

 

...

 

I just meant you need to play like you are playing chess. Well as you said a rookie will lose to a Grand Master is wrong ! Some Googled information is there, where you do see 10 Year boys defeating Grand Masters. well I know they are not rookies, but if you observe the game pretty carefully and calculate every move, its too helpuful to prevent your self from being Check-mated too fast like 2-3 turns. This is even more helpful in Pokemon as playing with those tactics plus if you have some luck, you can easily win :) I hope I made it clear now :D Last post was a bit confusing I think !

Yes, the 'if you have some luck, you can easily win' part I meant was all about I wrote now.

 

 

Ok, I conclude this here as this thread should go on the more interesting thing as it was supposed to be - the "Pokémathics" for which I said my suggestions in the first paragraph.

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if I have to wait for my opponents to run a pokemon calculator between turns I'm quitting the game.  There's already way too many people already taking 1min to 2 min a turn.  it's a game, have fun, quit trying to predict the odds of something happening and just get familiar with it.

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if I have to wait for my opponents to run a pokemon calculator between turns I'm quitting the game.  There's already way too many people already taking 1min to 2 min a turn.  it's a game, have fun, quit trying to predict the odds of something happening and just get familiar with it.

That's exactly why this guide is being discussed. It's not going to increase turn time for the beginning players, it's more going to give a 1-2 percent edge to more experienced players who won't take 2 minutes a turn. I far prefer this stratgy opposed to the current "Here's a list of cards, make this deck." At least with this, it's actually using logic and sense, wherein anyone can make a mindless net deck and win.    

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Daniel..a card game has a set of beginners and a set of veterans.. skyeventide here is sharing her experiences on how to become a better battler and that would highly improve the quality of the games played- making the players be able to get in sync with their decks and even their builds..

 

teaching a player what kind of cards to play would actually help him create his own variants according to his own preferences and ideas and the battles you play won't end up as gardevoir, yveltal, toad, m-ray, and gardevoir again..

 

if you think a card game takes too long if you are planning to think out, don't spread hate on those who do- since it enables a player to cross his previous limitations to pull of much more difficult victories.. and next time you waste your whole hand trying to rc your squirtle into a blastoise, or ub to get that jirachi out, or use a Skyla to get a card only to realize it's prized, don't complain about it

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if you think a card game takes too long if you are planning to think out, don't spread hate on those who do- since it enables a player to cross his previous limitations to pull of much more difficult victories.. and next time you waste your whole hand trying to rc your squirtle into a blastoise, or ub to get that jirachi out, or use a Skyla to get a card only to realize it's prized, don't complain about it

That was really Funnny, LOL :D

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Hey Trainers! :)

 

Please make sure to keep this topic on the constructive side and keep your discussion friendly and respectful to all players. Thanks!

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This thread has received way more replies and responses than I thought. I should clarify that I am still new and still using theme decks. I completely understand how knowing the composition of your opponent's deck changes EVERYTHING in a game. So that's a big disclaimer I should have added.

I'm going to make a "Tips" guide and incorporate conclusions that I have arrived at since drawing out all of the math is not that interesting. 

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TheMathTCG: The Probabilities Behind the Opening Hand was an article I found when I started playing PTCG.

Links are not permitted here so you have to search by yourself.

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TheMathTCG: The Probabilities Behind the Opening Hand was an article I found when I started playing PTCG.

Links are not permitted here so you have to search by yourself.

Well there are indeed many articles related to the gameplay of a deck and how to improve its consistency. But we are talking to create one here :)

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