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Draw System needs some work


sbernaky77

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Can you please work on the draw system, it is sometimes completely ridiculous. I have had starting hands with 3 or 4 of the same card. I also play Jirichi and start with it more times than I can count. I know it can never be perfect and there will always be bad hands but starting with 3 of the same card all the time is ridiculous.

 

My friend told me he played weaville eggecute and he prized all 4 egg, the chances of that are in the billions

 

Please do your best to change this

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If you have 4 Ultra Balls in deck, chances of drawing at least 1 is around 40%. That's a high percentage. I'm guessing getting 4 of them in your hand would be something around 2.5% (this is rough estimation, but it's close to real number). That's nowhere near billions. That's also relatively high percentage, so drawing wacky hands every now and then shouldn't be anything weird. Sometimes I get 2-3 mulligans even though I run around 10 basics. I haven't yet noticed that the cards would have a certain order and/or certain card types in certain situations would have a priority. Engineering cards in that way would be just way too much trouble for programmers since there's infinite number of situations in PTCGO, and when we all remember how simple AI is when you play those trainer challenges I think it's pretty safe to say that there is just pure randomness involved in card drawing. I really can't see point of setting up priorities when it comes to card draw. It would be unnecessary work for programmers.

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Your gonna tell me that you don't think its odd to get a hand of 3 DCE, 2 hypnotoxic laser, 1 switch, 1 pokemon and then the first card you draw is another hypnotoxic laser. Which is a hand ive gotten just yesterday. You either don't play enough online or your just oblivious to this huge problem.

 

Also I dare you to take out a real deck and shuffle over 100 times and look at the first seven cards, I guarantee you dont get 3 of the same card at all, but on tcg online youll get 3 of the same cards every few games

 

Also I don't know how you think that they shouldn't be working on this, the whole game is based on randomizing cards

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Yea thats not odd... Thats just your confirmation bias thinking somethings wrong. Thats odds for you, sometimes you will just have a terrible, terrible, terrible start you can't recover from.

 

I was playing a tourney of Dusknoir Flygon Accelgor and a sacred ash, 3 rare candy, a float stone, a trapinch, and a max potion despite the trop beaches and trainers. Couldn't draw anything useful in 3 turns, it happens.

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Guest ArtichokeCat
Yea thats not odd... Thats just your confirmation bias thinking somethings wrong. Thats odds for you, sometimes you will just have a terrible, terrible, terrible start you can't recover from.

 

I was playing a tourney of Dusknoir Flygon Accelgor and a sacred ash, 3 rare candy, a float stone, a trapinch, and a max potion despite the trop beaches and trainers. Couldn't draw anything useful in 3 turns, it happens.

 

Yup. Donks happen.

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Hi

 

First of all, I just did the calculation and the odds of having 4 executes prized is roughly 1:30000. Nowhere near billions. Please learn simple probability theory:

 

P = Binom(4,4)*Binom(55,2)/Binom(59,6) = 3.29*10^(-5)

Where

Binom(n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!)

 

If you don't like drawing Jirachi-Ex as your starting pokémon, don't play it. That's the risk you take for getting the benefit of searching for a supporter for free.

The randomness is the beauty of the game. Also, how would you tamper with the probabilities in the actual card game? Surely those probabilities should be consistent with the online ones?

Food for thought.

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If you have 4 Ultra Balls in deck, chances of drawing at least 1 is around 40%. That's a high percentage. I'm guessing getting 4 of them in your hand would be something around 2.5% (this is rough estimation, but it's close to real number). That's nowhere near billions. That's also relatively high percentage, so drawing wacky hands every now and then shouldn't be anything weird. Sometimes I get 2-3 mulligans even though I run around 10 basics. I haven't yet noticed that the cards would have a certain order and/or certain card types in certain situations would have a priority. Engineering cards in that way would be just way too much trouble for programmers since there's infinite number of situations in PTCGO, and when we all remember how simple AI is when you play those trainer challenges I think it's pretty safe to say that there is just pure randomness involved in card drawing. I really can't see point of setting up priorities when it comes to card draw. It would be unnecessary work for programmers.

 

2.5%? Where does that number come from?

 

Let's do some math. Correct if wrong. We will see change of getting 4 Ultra Balls in Prizes.

 

The prizes are laid down first. Let's see the total amount of combinations we have possible for 6 prizes.

 

60*59*58*57*56*55 = 36045979200 total combinations

 

How many combinations contain the 4 ultra balls?

 

1*1*1*1*(60-4)*(59-4) = 3080

 

But because they may be in different positions we multiply by 6c4 = 15. That becomes 46200 total combinations of prizes with 4 Ultra Balls in it.

 

1.28169635075415013278374193813e-4% chance of having 4 Ultra Balls in your prizes.

 

That is is EXTREMELY TINY!

 

The draw system isn't random, it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. I'm sure they never tested the randomness of the drawing, or coin flipping. It's difficult to make things truly random sometimes so I understand, however it should be ignored.

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Maybe it is because you notice the times you start with Jirachi EX more often.
I was thinking the same thing. I often remember terrible hands easier than great hands. But that's because my opponent always quit when I have a great hand haha. But I definitely have way more balanced hands than terrible hands.
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2.5%? Where does that number come from?

 

Let's do some math. Correct if wrong. We will see change of getting 4 Ultra Balls in Prizes.

 

The prizes are laid down first. Let's see the total amount of combinations we have possible for 6 prizes.

 

60*59*58*57*56*55 = 36045979200 total combinations

 

How many combinations contain the 4 ultra balls?

 

1*1*1*1*(60-4)*(59-4) = 3080

 

But because they may be in different positions we multiply by 6c4 = 15. That becomes 46200 total combinations of prizes with 4 Ultra Balls in it.

 

1.28169635075415013278374193813e-4% chance of having 4 Ultra Balls in your prizes.

 

That is is EXTREMELY TINY!

 

The draw system isn't random, it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. I'm sure they never tested the randomness of the drawing, or coin flipping. It's difficult to make things truly random sometimes so I understand, however it should be ignored.

 

You told me to correct you if you were wrong, so here is how you really calculate it:

 

The chance P of having 4 of the same cards prized is:

P = Binom(4,4)*Binom(55,2)/Binom(59,6) = 3.29*10^(-5)

Where Binom is the binomial coefficient defined by:

Binom(n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!)

 

We can simplify that as Binom(4,4)=1, so:

P = Binom(55,2)/Binom(59,6) = 3.29*10^(-5)

 

Notice since we will always have at least 1 basic in the active position, we are drawing 6 from 59 and not 6 from 60.

 

Anyways, the real chance is 3.29*10^(-5), which is roughly the same as 1:30000.

 

If you want to learn more about the subject, I urge you to look up sampling without replacement.

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2.5%? Where does that number come from?

 

Let's do some math. Correct if wrong. We will see change of getting 4 Ultra Balls in Prizes.

 

The prizes are laid down first. Let's see the total amount of combinations we have possible for 6 prizes.

 

60*59*58*57*56*55 = 36045979200 total combinations

 

How many combinations contain the 4 ultra balls?

 

1*1*1*1*(60-4)*(59-4) = 3080

 

But because they may be in different positions we multiply by 6c4 = 15. That becomes 46200 total combinations of prizes with 4 Ultra Balls in it.

 

1.28169635075415013278374193813e-4% chance of having 4 Ultra Balls in your prizes.

 

That is is EXTREMELY TINY!

 

The draw system isn't random, it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. I'm sure they never tested the randomness of the drawing, or coin flipping. It's difficult to make things truly random sometimes so I understand, however it should be ignored.

 

I found a good calculator to calculate this. I admit I was wrong with 2.5% so I'll put values that are closer to real ones:

 

So we have 60 cards and we draw 7. We have 4 Ultra Balls ******* deck. Chances of drawing (exactly):

- 1 UB = 33%

- 2 UB = 6%

- 3 UB = 0.3%

- 4 UB = 0.00007%

 

This is not taking into account prize cards, just a straight draw of 7 cards out of 60.

I used to play some poker before and I play quite a bit of some 'regular' card games every now and I can tell that weird combination of cards just happen. You don't have to play million hands to get full house or 4 of a kind. Texas Hold-em seems pretty similar to pokemon draw as you have 2 in hand and 5 on field that are 'shared', and I got some really nice combinations out of those 7 quite a lot of times despite percentages saying it's 1 in thousands. And I certainly didn't play thousands of hands in RL poker.

 

Point here is, making it completely random draw probably requires 1 line of code, while making it predictable in some obscure way requires making some kind of AI. And making AI for card dealing in PvP battle benefits exactly 0 people.

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if you put multiple of the same cards, your bound to get 1-4 in your hand in your first draw. jirachi is annoying, if you have a small amount of pokemon, chances of jirachis are very high on the first draw. Theres a reason there are other cards that you must have in yuor deck in order to compensate for this.

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This guy is getting smacked around by other players and is blaming the draw system is what i got out of this. Please close this thread.

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