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FA N on Wheel of Fortune, Uncertainty odds of WOF and discussion


Xabalanque

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I am curious to hear what people's opinions are on odds/uncertainty thresholds on various cards. I think there are various high value cards in game that are higher at risk of showing up on the wheel than others.

 

Here are some cards at particular risk I feel to lose most of their value (From greatest uncertainty in my opinion to least):

 

1. col Energies

This one is an obvious one, with grass col being added to the wheel this week. Uncertainty is already causing some panic selling and some people to buy on reduced price, hoping to sell those energies before they show up on the wheel also.

 

2. Latios - Latias Promo

The HGSS promo series continues to come out leaving both of these cards at risk. Both cards have already dropped tremendously in price as well. Due to extreme rarity, few players have these cards and while they would feel the impact tremendously - few others would.

 

3. FA Trainers nearing the end of their life cycle

We saw FA Cheren on the wheel. It being at the near end of its cycle, only surviving as a FA reprint in BC may have allowed this to occur. Other FA trainers nearing the end of their cycle also include N and Skyla. N I believe is at particular risk, considering the reason it will remain legal is due to a promo. As N becomes more limited for common players, this may encourage the pickers of the wheel to include FA N on the wheel especially. Coupled with the months of thread protests against hoarding, it seems these cards are particularly susceptible to wheel action.

 

4. Tropical Beach

I use tropical beaches in a dusknoir, flygon, accelgor deck and empoleon deck, so I will particularly feel this one - but these cards are also approaching the end of their life cycle. And worse, they are promos - putting them in the same vein as Darkrai FA or Giratina FA. Considering they have also been hoarded/stockpiled, these cards are at incredible risk as well.

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I think the above 4 are the sorts of cards with the highest risk currently.

 

In addition, these cards have some risk - but I believe a lesser risk:

 

1. Shiny/Secret Legend cards

Quite rare cards with limited quantity on tcg online. Not really subject to much hoarding either due to rarity. Not promo cards however, so they shouldn't be on the chopping block for a while

 

2. Other FA trainers

Cards not approaching the end of their life cycle that are subject to hoarding may still appear here, but I think most other FA trainers have relatively reliable ways to be received through the tournaments held on tcgo, probably ensuring for now their survival.

 

3. FA pokemon ex. Again largely to alleviate hoarding. However, I do think the pattern shown has been cards that have limited use/approaching end of life cycle/or extreme rarity are the primary factors regarding what appears on the wheel. While FA pokemon could appear, I don't see this happening

 

What do you all think? I am curious to hear your opinions on odds and uncertainty and predictions of what may show up on the wheel in the coming weeks. Perhaps some furious fist promos to once furious fists is out too may be expected

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The "reprints" of that cards on the wheel if that happens are simply deserved, the price for those "digital cards" are simply stupid

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All I know about wheel promos is it feels real bad to get a Hitmonlee, or a "RH XY DCE" when you finally roll a mystery box. Frankly I could almost do more with a token...

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The "reprints" of that cards on the wheel if that happens are simply deserved, the price for those "digital cards" are simply stupid

 

[Content removed - please keep all discussion polite and constructive. -Prof. Poplar]

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Guest ArtichokeCat
All I know about wheel promos is it feels real bad to get a Hitmonlee, or a "RH XY DCE" when you finally roll a mystery box. Frankly I could almost do more with a token...

 

You mean 25 tokens, right?

I love how there are free packs on the wheel.

I got like a 5 Mystery Box streak with Col energy or Packs.

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No, while they are digital cards, and not particularly meaningful, the PTCGO exists not just to battle people online, but the trading mechanic is a huge staple in the game as the primary source of entertainment for many of the playerbase. The IN GAME worth of certain cards is like a stock market rollercoaster, as Tournament mode is finally being used, and the admins continue to put certain cards on the Wheel of Fortune for free, cards that were once worth most of a certain players collection. This is actually a really big problem for players such as myself, and Xabalanque above. I understand the price of "digital cards" sound stupid to most other players, but that's like using the same ignorant argument that we get from non-TCG collectors in real life for the worth of "pieces of paper" that we're all probably so used to hearing by now.

 

TL;DR Xabalanque has a really good argument here. The prices of certain cards are changing like mad, even if only cards similar to them are at risk. The trading aspect of the game is important to a lot of players. It's best to just trade your cards how to predict it will benefit you in the end. Invest Wisely.

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I have expressed my thoughts about this on the suggestions thread about the new wheel prizes, but I will add a couple things here. They are using this as their strategy to have people play more games, before the wheel was implemented i played very little, it wasn't worth it at all. I agree with promos being handed out as technically they were free in the past, also I am in favour of giving out HGSS energies who used to be free as well. But I am totally against giving out cards that are only obtainable in packs. The market is working well, there are people ripping off everywhere. Actually this only makes it worse because if someone logs into the game after being away for a couple days, goes to public offers and sees he can get a Col Grass energy for 5 PF packs, he will think he just got a steal, however he will soon find out he didn't. This strategy will drive the best players and collectors away. We collect cards and we want to use them to play against each other. No one should get for free what others have worked so hard for, that's acting in as much bad faith as for those who ***** valuable cards, which are a minority. Most people who have highly valuable collections are always open to trading, it's the way they all are. As I have written early, you are on a path to removing the Trading from Pokemon Trading Card Game Online.

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I feel like the days of being puzzled by the purchase of virtual items is behind us and I understand where you collectors are coming from. But what's to say you don't trade your FA N's at top value now and try to pick them up again later when the dust settles?

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I am relatively indifferent to what they do with the wheel. Personally uncertainty in a market is always exciting to me... but most people obviously don't feel that way, this thread I hope may serve as a way to start speculation on how prices will turn out/the future of cards and expectations. For the sake of rarity, I think the wheel is a bad idea especially if promoting loyalty is the goal. It however imo, does achieve the goal of getting more players invested in the online game, rather than just the top tier collectors - which has been a huge issue and I think is an issue they care more about.

 

So yea, I just think people who like to trade cards (like me) just have to take the uncertainty into consideration. And honestly - it makes for a more dynamic market :)!

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Right now it seems like the sky is the limit with what can and will appear on the prize wheel. I mentioned it in another post but pretty much said if i didn't know better i wondered if the Prof's/ Dev's would intentionally try to bring down prices of very highly inflated ultra rare cards. Could you imagine if something like Secret Rare Ultra Ball or full art N popped up on the wheel in the near future, people would be having a major fit that spent money to obtain these for self use or horded them because they knew whenever a new set came they could drop these cards on the dime and obtain cards from new sets or the packs from those sets.

 

It will be interesting to see what comes in the future and the way it will effect the trade market to say the least. I am torn between feelings though as i do like seeing it i do feel bad for those who spent many resources to obtain said cards could now have their investments slashed but i suppose that's the risk you take.

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"I suppose that's the risk you take"

 

Well, the Professors and Dev's are also taking a huge risk if they decide to pursue this since they will lose a ton of veterans overtime.

Also this will create more opportunities to ripping off since lack of information for some users will make them to overpay huge amounts for cards who are barely free. Also this uncertainty you talk about will only inflate the market more, the new set coming out will probably hit market prices never seen before, since new cards are less likely to end up on the wheel, the risk will be smaller, the price will be a lot higher.

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I think this idea of giving some letters on the wheel of fortune very good, people do not need more spend money in real life, to be able to have rare cards in the online game. Many online players try to profit making absurd exchanges with their rare cards. :D

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"I suppose that's the risk you take"

 

Well, the Professors and Dev's are also taking a huge risk if they decide to pursue this since they will lose a ton of veterans overtime.

Also this will create more opportunities to ripping off since lack of information for some users will make them to overpay huge amounts for cards who are barely free. Also this uncertainty you talk about will only inflate the market more, the new set coming out will probably hit market prices never seen before, since new cards are less likely to end up on the wheel, the risk will be smaller, the price will be a lot higher.

 

I agree, wasn't trying to downplay the potential backlash that could occur. Just was saying the potential for this to happen was there all along and for those who took the risk they had to chance it. I said i liked it because there is a small potential it could drive down the value of certain high value cards that are already circulating. However i didn't consider players potentially raising new set card values to potentially help eat up the loss the could be facing.

 

Interesting thought for sure and that is something many won't be looking forward to. I will say to counter that though for the ones who can afford or have means to obtain codes they could bypass an inflated marker by just buying the codes their self and risk trying to pull what they need instead of paying an insanely high price on what they need.

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I am relatively indifferent to what they do with the wheel. Personally uncertainty in a market is always exciting to me... but most people obviously don't feel that way, this thread I hope may serve as a way to start speculation on how prices will turn out/the future of cards and expectations. For the sake of rarity, I think the wheel is a bad idea especially if promoting loyalty is the goal. It however imo, does achieve the goal of getting more players invested in the online game, rather than just the top tier collectors - which has been a huge issue and I think is an issue they care more about.

 

So yea, I just think people who like to trade cards (like me) just have to take the uncertainty into consideration. And honestly - it makes for a more dynamic market :)!

 

Well said Xabalanque. Agree with you completely.

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I do hope they reprint all of the rare cards for the wheel! :) It will give those who wish to collect the cards a chance at getting the higher priced cards (run up by certain trading threads) . It wouldn't bother me one bit to see any and all cards put onto the wheel. Good Job PTCGO!

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IMO I don't think the risk is as bad as people might think. Look at it this way: how many new players come into PTCGO daily? If only 2% of the players of the game have a really rare card, and then they start handing it out on the wheel for a week, the total number of players playing the game will probably increase more in a long period of time vs. the one week of handouts. I don't know the statistics exactly, but my theory is that there may even be MORE players in demand of a WOF card in the long run. These are just my thoughts on the matter. But I do believe that PTCGO should use discretion on what they offer on the wheel i.e not offering let's say a FA furious fists EX in the WOF the week after it comes out and prices sky rocket.

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