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Catcher - always heads


jbcheshire

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I have played against five different opponents today, and surprisingly enough all of them are still using multiple catchers in their decks. Each of the decks were different and played by different opponents, yet whenever they play their catcher it has always come up heads for them. Out of the five games this number is probably close to 10-12 out of 10-12. Those odds are not right, I don't care what anyone says about randomness. Could you please check the algorithm for this again to make sure nothing has gotten changed since the last maintenance?...

 

Thanks!!

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Not that I lost, but that the odds of hitting all heads on catcher is not right...

 

Perhaps, but remember that they are odds, hence on 12 coin tosses you can get 6 heads, or even 0 or 12

 

I've seen an opposing Kangaskhan (From Rallying Cry, which has Comet Punch) completely fail to deal any damage in two consecutive Comet Punches. It's just horrendous luck

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yeah unless something is actually flawed in the math formulations (who knows ? ) luck is exactly that :)

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Guest ArtichokeCat

Ok...i played vs a vanniluxe deck...first, kangaskhan (pb) got 4 heads in a row on me. the, vanniluxe came in and finshed of my snorlax (FF) with chillmax flipping all 5 coins as heads!

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if the system is indeed giving us a lot of heads, I think you all should be making continuous tumble decks and destroy all

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Trust me or not. One day i played with the Theme Deck Frost Ray. Me and my opponent had one price left and it was my turn. I provide my Vanilluxe with about 15 Energy Cards. No joke!!! It was for me more Fun, cause i could end the game turns before. But however. My opponents Pokemon has about 70hp left. Attack was Chillmax. For each head 60 damage. 1 Tail, 14 Heads... I was speechless and i lost the whole game after his turn. :D

It is indeed Randomness, but that can be really freaky;)

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yeah like everybody else said, thats no bug.

 

my personal record was 25 coin flips with my sableye deck.

 

3 head, 22 tail ^^

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yeah like everybody else said, thats no bug.

 

my personal record was 25 coin flips with my sableye deck.

 

3 head, 22 tail ^^

haha, once i played a conkeldurr (or whathever the name is), in a basic orange deck, i was 5 prizes in the lead when he hit me with his attack... 15 consecutive heads decking me out xD

 

 

about the coin toss thing, its impossible to program randomness. To be honest i think the program works pretty well, ive had matches way of, with maybe 5 out of 20 heads and the other way around.. but usually it seems to be somewhere in the middle...

what i do have to say though, it appears that the program is still aiming for the 50% heads/ tails but its not doing it for each player individually but for both together. Often i see the "stats" after the match ballancing eachother out: I would have something like 5 heads 1 tails and my opponent 1 heads 5 tails.

Is there anyone else that has the same thing?

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i would be curious to know the algorithm too... does it work with a 0/1 equation (0 being heads, 1 being tails) or does it ask between 1 and 100 (50- heads, 50+ tails) .. what are the real odds? with a 0/1 equation the game is saying "right/wrong , right/wrong" with very little degree. If it were saying pick a number between 1-100, it would force the program to have a wider spectrum of right/wrong. I just flipped a coin 10x and the result was 50/50. I couldn't find a 20 sided die, so I rolled a 6 sided die 10x and the results were about a 7/3 split, heads coming out 7x and tails at 3x. If I continued to roll that 6 sided die 60x, the chance over time would probably equal itself out to 50/50, but the games don't last too long if either player is consecutively rolling well or vice versa... then again, we are asking a computer to have luck and by nature it's a precise machine. Even the computer would say it absolutely knew the outcome of chance, but that would completely undermine the whole principal of chance.

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there is a video of by TylrPlays where he jokes around with a friend, loading up a vaniluxe with a whole deck worth of energy and then checking out the damamge. the total coin flips tends to be just a bit off from 50/50

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The actual definition (thanks Chronophysicist) of the Gambler's fallacy should help...

 

The gambler's fallacy... is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random..., this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

 

In short, you can flip a coin an infinite amount of times, and theoretically they could all land on heads. Each time you go to flip a coin the odds are always 50%/50%, regardless of what the outcome was before. On the other hand, if I said that I could flip a coin 10 times in a row and always get heads, that is where statistically the chance of that happening diminishes (actually instead of 1/2 chance, it becomes more like 1/1024 chance).

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Guest ArtichokeCat

apparently yes....they are the profs after all

so...that fallacy thing...

say if opponent gets like 5 heads in a row...

then should they get 5 tails in a row or something to even it out?

this is mind-boggling

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so...that fallacy thing...

say if opponent gets like 5 heads in a row...

then should they get 5 tails in a row or something to even it out?

this is mind-boggling

 

If you say: "what is the chance the next coin-flip will be heads and not tails?" The odds will always be 1/2... heads or tails have an equal chance to be landed on next... regardless of past coin flips (if it was the first coin-flip or the hundredth)

 

If you say: "what is the chance the next 20 coin-flips will be heads and not tails?" The odds would be 1/1,048,576... the odds of flipping all 20 coins and having them be heads is not very likely.

 

The fallacy comes in when you say: "because I have rolled 19 heads in a row, the 20th must be tails, because it has a 1/1,048,576 chance to be heads". The truth is, just because something happens more frequently than normal during some period (19 head coin-flips in a row), it does not mean it will happen less frequently in the future (and in turn the 20th coin flip must be tails). This is because the 20th coin flip has only a 50% - 50% chance to roll either heads or tails; The odds of rolling heads again is as likely as the first time you flipped the coin.

 

:D

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The key here is that every coin flip is independent from the previous one(s). Thus, the chance of a coin flip does not change depending on the previous ones. As a result:

 

Chance of getting 20 heads out of 20 coin flips: 1/1048576 (Roughly 0.00000095367431640625)

Chance of getting 20 heads out of 20 coin flips, knowing we got 19 heads out of the other 19 flips: 1/2

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