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Set Probabilities


JimmyTest

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This is not a trading list but something for everyone's information.

 

So if you have ever found yourself wondering what is the probability of opening a pack and getting a particular card, then look no further.

 

This post contains the careful tabulation of 100 online ND packs. I will post a similar tabulation of 100 online Dark Explorers once it is released.

 

Next Destinies

 

Likelihood ratio per pack (ie: on average how many packs would I need to open to get one of the given card) in order

 

Full Art pokemon 1:100 packs (so you would need to open about 100 ND packs to get one FA)

 

EX pokemon 1 : 12.5 packs

 

Rare pokemon 1 : 0.92 packs

 

Trainer card 1 : 0.92

 

Holographic card 1 : 0.76 packs

 

 

 

 

 

Percentage of commons that are holo: 4%

 

Percentage of uncommmons that are holo: 15%

 

Percentage of rares that are holo: 50%

 

 

 

 

 

Most uncommon uncommon card: Vanilish - 1 : 12.5 packs

 

Most common uncommon card: Raichu - 1 : 4.2 packs

 

Most uncommon common card: Blitzle - 1 : 9.1 packs

 

Most common common card: Litwick - 1 : 4.2 packs

 

 

 

The total value of the 1000 cards in this sample, according to the top trading posts price lists, is between 115 and 124 packs.

 

Finally, the tabulation below is for Rares only, and lists the name, the frequency in the 1000 card sample, and the percentage of that card amoung the Rares, all in order of frequency.

 

 

 

Name Freq. Percent

 

Jellicent 8 7.34

 

Vanilluxe 7 6.42

 

Zapdos 6 5.50

 

Amoonguss 5 4.59

 

Persian 5 4.59

 

Shiftry 5 4.59

 

Simisear 5 4.59

 

Wigglytuff 5 4.59

 

Darmanitan 4 3.67

 

Gardevior 4 3.67

 

Lapras 4 3.67

 

Luxray 4 3.67

 

Moltres 4 3.67

 

Scrafty 4 3.67

 

Weavile 4 3.67

 

Articuno 3 2.75

 

Beartic 3 2.75

 

Beheeyem 3 2.75

 

Bronzong 3 2.75

 

Lucario 3 2.75

 

Pinsir 3 2.75

 

Simisage 3 2.75

 

Chandelure (F) 2 1.83

 

Musharna 2 1.83

 

Reshiram 2 1.83

 

Zekrom 2 1.83

 

Chandelure 1 0.92

 

Cinccino 1 0.92

 

Muk 1 0.92

 

Simipour 1 0.92

 

Zebstrika 1 0.92

 

Zoroark 1 0.92

 

 

 

More to come - so watch this space for the break down of online Dark Explorers packs!

 

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although i enjoy this post, your sample size is way too small. the numbers are pretty close but for instance my first 10 packs i opened, out of the 200 or so ND i have opened, i pulled 3 fa's. thats like 1:3.33 or in the long run 3:200. i have pulled several more fa's dont get me wrong. i think a sample size of about 1000 would be better. if you could get a few people to help you out and pool data together this would be alot closer to actual odds.

 

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if you wanna give me 100 packs, i'll throw a sample list together also ;-)

 

 

 

 

 

but yeah, i seem to get a FA every 20-25 packs or so, and an EX every 12-15

 

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My first 10 packs, i got Kyurem FA and Reshi FA. After that for next 20, i got Shaymin EX reg and FA. After that, none =D... Well, i just opened for like 50 ND packs at most.

 

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I have opened a few hundrered must be at last around 400. I know someone who pulled I think it was like 8 EX's in 12 packs.

 

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My first 10 packs, i got Kyurem FA and Reshi FA. After that for next 20, i got Shaymin EX reg and FA. After that, none =D... Well, i just opened for like 50 ND packs at most.

 

 

 

 

I opened only about 35 packs of ND and only got one EX, and it was not even FA. I must just be unlucky. Interesting statistics though. I'll look forward to seeing how numbers for DE shake out.

 

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