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Order Pad is rigged!


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27 November 2018 - 04:10 AM

#1

Pokegen85

    Trainer

  • Pokegen85

Statistically, a coin flip is supposed to give you a 50/50 chance of getting heads. When one uses this card, as I have in multiple matches, one almost always gets tails. The ratio seems to float around 1/10 to 2/10, where for every 1.5 heads you flip, you flip ten tails. Worthless card if you ask me.


  • -2

27 November 2018 - 05:52 AM

#2

XK920XK

    Veteran Trainer

  • XK920XK

:rolleyes: 


  • 5

27 November 2018 - 06:47 AM

#3

Felidae_

    Elite Trainer

  • Felidae_

Observation bias and a low sample size. Now that's how you do statistics!


The shadows of the abyss are like the petals of a monstrous flower that shall blossom within the skull and expand the mind beyond what any man can bear, but whether it decays under the earth or above on green fields, or out to sea or in the very air, all shall come to revelation, and to revel, in the knowledge of the strangling fruit - and the hand of the sinner shall rejoice, for there is no sin in shadow or in light that the seeds of the dead cannot forgive...

 

  • 5

27 November 2018 - 07:45 AM

#4

BowserLuigi

    Elite Trainer

  • BowserLuigi
Erm... Ok (do people even use Order Pads nowadays?)
  • 5

27 November 2018 - 11:34 AM

#5

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612
Refer to this:

http://forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/50987-rng-experiment-attack-coinflips/
  • 4

27 November 2018 - 01:58 PM

#6

LegendofZapdos5

    Veteran Trainer

  • LegendofZapdos5

The 2,3,4th and 5th post say everything that need to be said my friend (Especially that 3rd post-my sides hurt from laughter!).  I have seen many people use order pad since it came out and the results vary. Some were hitting every flip-others just flipped out of luck. Coin flips have always been tricky in pokemon-which is why I try to stay away from it myself and just aim for hard-hitting action (Like fire and fighting decks)

 

Best of Luck to anyone using a coin-flipping deck.


  • 4

30 November 2018 - 06:40 PM

#7

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612

This really isn't meant to rub it in, but I did a little RNG experiment with Order Pad to confirm its behavior. I'm going to update my own RNG Experiment thread actually, since I want to add this and I want to do some adjustments to the math I used on my original experiment, but I'll drop you the summary here. This is really just for your peace of mind, since this shows very clearly that Order Pad isn't rigged.

The TL;DR of the experiment is that I played 10 games in the VS Ladder where I used Order Pad 10 times in each game, for a total of 100 coin flips. I used Junk Hunt and Resource Management to recycle the Order Pads.

[Game 1]

  • Heads: 4
  • Tails: 6

[Game 2]

  • Heads: 6
  • Tails: 4

[Game 3]

  • Heads: 5
  • Tails: 5

[Game 4]

  • Heads: 4
  • Tails: 6

[Game 5]

  • Heads: 5
  • Tails: 5

[Game 6]

  • Heads: 4
  • Tails: 6

[Game 七*]

  • Heads: 5
  • Tails: 5

[Game 8]

  • Heads: 6
  • Tails: 4

[Game 9]

  • Heads: 7
  • Tails: 3

[Game 10]

  • Heads: 3
  • Tails: 7

Total Count:

  • Heads: 49
  • Tails: 51

 

 

The final result for the number of heads out of 100 coins flips is 49 ±1 for a confidence interval of 95%. This result adds up since the true average is of 50 (49 +1). Each of the individual sets of 10 coin flips also fall within their respective margins of error for a confidence interval of over 90%. I'll write the details of the math on the other thread when I get around to updating it (http://forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/50987-rng-experiment-attack-coinflips/).

 

*Translator's Note: 七 means 7. The censor is being absolutely ridiculous again and it's not letting me put the words "Game" and "7" together.

 

 
Lastly, I want to reiterate that I'm not out to get you or anything. I've had such issues with other people in the past where they think I'm harassing for the lulz or something since I appeared on several of their topics correcting them on several things. And, as funny as it was to watch them make clowns out of themselves, I think you deserve a little better. Despite your mistakes, you still seem like a nice person regardless. Please just take this at face value and try to see it as a lesson with good intentions behind it.


Edited by Sakura150612, 30 November 2018 - 06:56 PM.

  • 2

02 December 2018 - 03:52 AM

#8

SuperStone

    Elite Trainer

  • SuperStone

-snip-


(Snarky voice:) Gosh, talk about rigging your ELO. Jeez, Sakura, do the ladder the right way. Don't think I don't see right past your sorry excuses. Besides, order pad is clearly messed up. I played three thousands games yesterday, and do you know how many heads I flipped with it? Wanna guess? Seven! What kind of ratio is 7/3000?!? And don't try to pawn off your statistics on me- I have a decree in Statisteontologisosophy from Oxford University. I'd show my diploma, but I don't feel like hacking the forums today. Also- 七 happens to be a hate symbol from Costa Rica. They have a lot of raycism there against the invading Canadians. You wouldn't want to be a hatecist, would you? And one more thing- 10 is a very suspicious number of games. A random system doesn't like big round numbers like that- it only makes sense if you made it up. And what kind of person makes up a 10? Someone who's only a nine- a nein- and that's GERMAN!!! You know about GERMANY, don't you?! It's GERManY! You're spreading DISEASE! I can FEEL my LUNGS COLLAPSING! Augh! Can't breathe! Can't- can- huh, huh- ca- can't- breeeeathe....

 

My apologies to the OP. :P  All in jest, all in jest.

 

And I suppose I should apologize to Sakura, too. XD


Edited by SuperStone, 02 December 2018 - 03:57 AM.

The truth waits for no one.  That which you refuse to see, TPCi, slips past you.  The chat function was never your problem, yet through your blindness, you have made it one.

  • 2

02 December 2018 - 04:09 AM

#9

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612

(Snarky voice:) Gosh, talk about rigging your ELO. Jeez, Sakura, do the ladder the right way. Don't think I don't see right past your sorry excuses. Besides, order pad is clearly messed up. I played three thousands games yesterday, and do you know how many heads I flipped with it? Wanna guess? Seven! What kind of ratio is 7/3000?!? And don't try to pawn off your statistics on me- I have a decree in Statisteontologisosophy from Oxford University. I'd show my diploma, but I don't feel like hacking the forums today. Also- 七 happens to be a hate symbol from Costa Rica. They have a lot of raycism there against the invading Canadians. You wouldn't want to be a hatecist, would you? And one more thing- 10 is a very suspicious number of games. A random system doesn't like big round numbers like that- it only makes sense if you made it up. And what kind of person makes up a 10? Someone who's only a nine- a nein- and that's GERMAN!!! You know about GERMANY, don't you?! It's GERManY! You're spreading DISEASE! I can FEEL my LUNGS COLLAPSING! Augh! Can't breathe! Can't- can- huh, huh- ca- can't- breeeeathe....
 
My apologies to the OP. :P  All in jest, all in jest.
 
And I suppose I should apologize to Sakura, too. XD


LOL xDDDD

Why apologize to me though xd This is hilarious, I actually burst out laughing with that. I give that one a 10/10 for sure xd


Edited by Sakura150612, 02 December 2018 - 06:17 AM.

  • 1

03 December 2018 - 10:45 PM

#10

LegendofZapdos5

    Veteran Trainer

  • LegendofZapdos5

(Snarky voice:) Gosh, talk about rigging your ELO. Jeez, Sakura, do the ladder the right way. Don't think I don't see right past your sorry excuses. Besides, order pad is clearly messed up. I played three thousands games yesterday, and do you know how many heads I flipped with it? Wanna guess? Seven! What kind of ratio is 7/3000?!? And don't try to pawn off your statistics on me- I have a decree in Statisteontologisosophy from Oxford University. I'd show my diploma, but I don't feel like hacking the forums today. Also- 七 happens to be a hate symbol from Costa Rica. They have a lot of raycism there against the invading Canadians. You wouldn't want to be a hatecist, would you? And one more thing- 10 is a very suspicious number of games. A random system doesn't like big round numbers like that- it only makes sense if you made it up. And what kind of person makes up a 10? Someone who's only a nine- a nein- and that's GERMAN!!! You know about GERMANY, don't you?! It's GERManY! You're spreading DISEASE! I can FEEL my LUNGS COLLAPSING! Augh! Can't breathe! Can't- can- huh, huh- ca- can't- breeeeathe....

 

My apologies to the OP. :P  All in jest, all in jest.

 

And I suppose I should apologize to Sakura, too. XD

Look SS-stop spreading your German germs this way! Some of us want to remain healthy here!!! (My sides...I can't breath!!!)  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

 

LOL xDDDD

Why apologize to me though xd This is hilarious, I actually burst out laughing with that. I give that one a 10/10 for sure xd

I apologize to you too! (For liking your post!  :P) Nice job on actually making A REAL STATISTICAL CHART! (With real results). Now with those kind of results/studying-that is information I can trust! :D


Edited by LegendofZapdos5, 03 December 2018 - 11:01 PM.

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