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Pack Pull Rates


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03 November 2018 - 07:02 PM

#1

LiquidLutetium

    Rookie Trainer

  • LiquidLutetium

I have noticed recently when opening packs that pull rates have been genuinely abysmal. I understand that opening packs comes with an element of luck, but I can go 20 or so packs sometimes without hitting literally anything, which is both frustrating and not representative of an actual experience. This has occurred recently with my Lost Thunder packs, where all I have to show for about 30 packs is a single regular art Shuckle-GX. It is basically impossible that this should normally happen. It also seems like other players can pull a good card literally every other pack, basically making the game unfair.


  • -2

03 November 2018 - 07:41 PM

#2

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612

I would like to see the math that supports this claim. AFAIK, there aren't any published pull rates for anything, not how many GXs every X packs, not how many SRs every Y packs, not how many commons every Z packs, no nothing at all.

 

In other words, you do not have any data that can be used as a grounds for comparison. You don't have enough data to establish the exact pull rates of the packs in either real life or in the virtual game.

 

How much data would be considered sufficient for the Law of the Large Numbers to apply depends on the number of total possibilities. For coin tosses, 30 coins would be sufficient to identify if the coin is fair within a reasonably small margin of error. But for pull rates though, 30 packs is nowhere close to enough data. Keep in mind that for coin flips the result is binary, meaning only 2 possible outcomes. For pull rates, there are millions and millions of possible unique 10 card combinations. Just so you have an idea, there are over 8x1014 possible 10 card combinations assuming you can pull a maximum of 1 rare or higher card per pack. Then, there's a high chance that the cards that are rare or higher don't have equal pull rates, where the actual numerical pull rates of each one cannot be determined through theory. So, you'd need a significantly large amount of data to determine anything that comes close to the true pull rates with a margin of error that isn't ridiculously large.

 

Realistically, the only way to determine pull rates empirically is to gather the data of thousands of opened packs, which would have to be gathered from hundreds or thousands of different people since it's unlikely that a single person will open that many packs of any given pack. Keep in mind too that this is keeping the type of pack as a controlled variable, since pull rates in 1 pack don't necessarily apply to a different one.

 

After ALL of that, you still have to consider, like I said a little earlier. that we don't have any theoretical pull rates that we can compare to either, so even if we collected a lot of data, it'd be impossible to know if those detailed pull rates we calculated are accurate or not.

 

Simply put, you cannot hope to make a 30 (or anything close to that) pack sample size representative of the millions of possible combinations. The most likely answer (albeit without an absolute degree of certainty) is that you were unlucky, plain and simple.


Edited by Sakura150612, 03 November 2018 - 08:08 PM.

  • 2

03 November 2018 - 09:46 PM

#3

WingsofFire1014

    Senior Trainer

  • WingsofFire1014

I would like to see the math that supports this claim. AFAIK, there aren't any published pull rates for anything, not how many GXs every X packs, not how many SRs every Y packs, not how many commons every Z packs, no nothing at all.
 
In other words, you do not have any data that can be used as a grounds for comparison. You don't have enough data to establish the exact pull rates of the packs in either real life or in the virtual game.
 
How much data would be considered sufficient for the Law of the Large Numbers to apply depends on the number of total possibilities. For coin tosses, 30 coins would be sufficient to identify if the coin is fair within a reasonably small margin of error. But for pull rates though, 30 packs is nowhere close to enough data. Keep in mind that for coin flips the result is binary, meaning only 2 possible outcomes. For pull rates, there are millions and millions of possible unique 10 card combinations. Just so you have an idea, there are over 8x1014 possible 10 card combinations assuming you can pull a maximum of 1 rare or higher card per pack. Then, there's a high chance that the cards that are rare or higher don't have equal pull rates, where the actual numerical pull rates of each one cannot be determined through theory. So, you'd need a significantly large amount of data to determine anything that comes close to the true pull rates with a margin of error that isn't ridiculously large.
 
Realistically, the only way to determine pull rates empirically is to gather the data of thousands of opened packs, which would have to be gathered from hundreds or thousands of different people since it's unlikely that a single person will open that many packs of any given pack. Keep in mind too that this is keeping the type of pack as a controlled variable, since pull rates in 1 pack don't necessarily apply to a different one.
 
After ALL of that, you still have to consider, like I said a little earlier. that we don't have any theoretical pull rates that we can compare to either, so even if we collected a lot of data, it'd be impossible to know if those detailed pull rates we calculated are accurate or not.
 
Simply put, you cannot hope to make a 30 (or anything close to that) pack sample size representative of the millions of possible combinations. The most likely answer (albeit without an absolute degree of certainty) is that you were unlucky, plain and simple.

Yes, I agree. I just searched this topic and found some things but none of them shared the same information and some obviously had bad answers. We really will probably never know. It is mostly a pick matter.
Try try again. Never ever quit.
  • 0

03 November 2018 - 10:55 PM

#4

SandaledOtter

    Elite Trainer

  • SandaledOtter

Yes, I agree. I just searched this topic and found some things but none of them shared the same information and some obviously had bad answers. We really will probably never know. It is mostly a pick matter.

For the real packs, there are some rules, even if we aren't certain of them. Number of SRs or FAs in a box, things like that.

 

None of that applies here, because every pack is independent of the others, generated from nothing nothing but the rarity numbers.

 

Opening 36 packs is not the same here as with physical cards. They aren't a box, and you don't get better odds by opening a bunch at once.

 

It's like going to 36 stores and buying 36 packs, not like going to one store and buying a box.

 

Other theories involve the green codes vs. the white codes, and again, that doesn't matter here. They're all just booster packs.


"Swishonk!" That's what's happening!

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04 November 2018 - 01:57 AM

#5

ThieveryCorp

    Rookie Trainer

  • ThieveryCorp

I too thought the same thing having opened about 200 packs of Lost Thunder. The only hyper rare I got was a mimikyu and even then I didn't get a few of the normal gx/ex fair. Most common gx was alolan vulpix and ended up with a bunch of prism cards but barely any gx or ex. Very bad rates on these packs and trust me I have opened thousands of digital packs in this game. However because of my experience with opening packs I will say that it feels like at certain times your success rate is very good for about ~15-20 packs straight then nothing.


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