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New decks are killing Theme play


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25 April 2018 - 12:52 PM

#41

Sadra

    Senior Trainer

  • Sadra

Great!

So five games in a row you first had a mulligan with this hand.

Now someone correct me if I'm wrong here ;)

There are 2 Gumshoos, 2 Cynthia, 1 Malasada and 20 energies in the deck, so after you had your first mulligan, each of the 4 following ones had a probability of (2*2*1*20*19*18*17)/(60*59*58*57*56*55*54)*7! = 0.12% of being the same by chance. Take that number, put it to the 4th power and inverse it and we get: A similar occurence should only happen once in 475 billion matches on average.

This is 1 million players each playing 10 matches a day everyday for 130 years...

This story strongly points to a RNG bug.

 

How long did the first 4 games take? That's how long the random seed presumably got stuck.

Was the starting hand after the mulligan the same too? If not, either it's not a stuck random seed or a new seed is cooked after a mulligan.

Do you also start with the same hand (no mulligan) several games in a row?

 

It could be that the bug(s) doesn't affect every user. This would be the case if e.g. the user ID is used in the cooking recipe but some IDs lead to bad statistical properties in the recipe.

 

PTCGO, please note that it's good practice to open-source the part of the code that deals with RNG.

 

Side note: an RNG bug could mean there's a best way to open packs!

I think that the RNG codes will never be released by pokemon because many would then just exploit them for wrong uses. Even if there was something fishy about the codes, which I rather believe there isn't, there is basically nothing you can do about it. 


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25 April 2018 - 12:58 PM

#42

TimeComa

    Rookie Trainer

  • TimeComa

Agreed, New decks are annoying however I've successfully won against Imperial Command with Forest shadow and Hidden Moon, successfully won against Mach strike with Destruction Fang and Clanging Thunder, Mental Might , Roaring Heat and Rocksteady can be successful aswell. Although not easy it can be achieve but this isn't anything new to the game. Try playing any decks previous to the ones i've just mentioned and you may understand what i'm saying.

Have fun guys!


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27 April 2018 - 12:00 AM

#43

SingingFlyEx

    Junior Trainer

  • SingingFlyEx

I think that the RNG codes will never be released by pokemon because many would then just exploit them for wrong uses. Even if there was something fishy about the codes, which I rather believe there isn't, there is basically nothing you can do about it. 

This is called "security by obfuscation" and has failed in the past, which is why so much security (incl. RNG) code is public even though the potential damage from exploits is much greater that just ptcgo's rng code.

ptcgo is popular enough that a number of knowledgeable people would read the code. I'd expect quite a big /r/ptcgo thread if that code was published. It's also the best way to prove it's safe to playtest on ptcgo.

Why do you believe there's no bug in the rng code?


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27 April 2018 - 01:02 AM

#44

Sadra

    Senior Trainer

  • Sadra

This is called "security by obfuscation" and has failed in the past, which is why so much security (incl. RNG) code is public even though the potential damage from exploits is much greater that just ptcgo's rng code.

ptcgo is popular enough that a number of knowledgeable people would read the code. I'd expect quite a big /r/ptcgo thread if that code was published. It's also the best way to prove it's safe to playtest on ptcgo.

Why do you believe there's no bug in the rng code?

If you have seen any of my previous posts, you can see that I have stated that the same decks have different performances IRL and online. But I have been informed that most players do not experience this and I assumed that maybe I am just unlucky. Still, I am not familiar with programming and I would rather assume that there isn't. 


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27 April 2018 - 05:42 PM

#45

SingingFlyEx

    Junior Trainer

  • SingingFlyEx

the same decks have different performances IRL and online.

If this is true, then either there's a bug or you don't shuffle your deck correctly IRL.

(Studying the effects of good and bad shuffling is certainly advisable for competitive players.)

I only read this forum section. I checked out your thread about bad luck. You don't need a major in computing science to tell confirmation biases/bad luck from bugs, but you need a sane statistical approach. Hammers should get 86% only if the number of flips was low, or lots of statistics were taken and one of them happens to deviate a lot, or there's a bug.

BTW bugged RNG sequences can get the mean right (flips are 50-50 on average) but some correlations wrong (more long sequences with lots of heads or tails than there should be). Then someone comes and say "I've flipped 1000 coins and it doesn't deviate a lot from 500-500 so there's no bug!"...

The current state is: either there's a bug or some users are lying/trolling.


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