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RNG Experiment: Attack Coinflips


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11 May 2017 - 02:34 AM

#41

SuperStone

    Elite Trainer

  • SuperStone

Come on, man; you know statistics don't work like that.  This would only be a problem if that happened every time with pyukumyuku, but it doesn't.  Your friend got unlucky, but that means the RNG is working right- not that it's working wrong.  The chances of heads are 1/2 to the nth power, in this case 1/256.  It's a low chance, but it exists, and it happens.  Unless you can show that these cases happen significantly more than once very two hundred fifty two times, there isn't a problem.

 

Innocent until proven guilty, no?


The truth waits for no one.  That which you refuse to see, TPCi, slips past you.  The chat function was never your problem, yet through your blindness, you have made it one.

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11 May 2017 - 03:11 AM

#42

FlavorfulPineAp

    Senior Trainer

  • FlavorfulPineAp

So...
Today it happened for me to be at a friend's house and i was present in the room while he was playing some PTCGO matches.
Long story short, i witnessed a Tapu Lele GX who it was using a Fury Belt getting knocked out by 8 consecutive heads coins flips from a Pyukumuku.
The outcome of the attack was 240, which was the exact amount of damage needed in order to knock out the card.
 
Don't get me wrong but Pyukumuku isn't the case.
Opening hands are the case.
Coin flips are the case.
RNG totally ignoring a deck's consistency is the case.
 
Maybe TPCi is fine with Sakura's experiment as it serves their agenda of the RNG being totally fine, maybe rest of the PTCGO community is fine with Sakura's experiment as they aren't into performing such a dedicated experiment themselves, but i'm not fine either with Sakura's experiments or TCPi's agenda.
 
The RNG is broken, i see it everyday within matches and if you think what i say is absolutely wrong then prove me wrong by showing the RNG code publicly.
Unless Sakura had access to the RNG's code, then i can also say this experiment is absolutely wrong too.
 
I am sick and tired of the RNG as PTCGO is all about luck and winning isn't based on deck consistency.


I agree with this. I'd say I lose %98.76 of coin flips (random number, just means I lose most of the time), and it really is annoying. I can't even go first if I want to, as the coin flips never agree with me.

I'm not saying that the RNG is broken (or am I?) but I mean seriously, what are these hands with 4 VS Seeker + Sycamore? These hands with 4 DCE? Or just bad hands in general, there really hadn't been a game where I haven't had this happen.

Deck Building Maniac :cool: 

:wub: Favorite deck/s: Vespiquen/Vileplume, Vespiquen, Vespiquen/Flareon  :wub:  

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11 May 2017 - 03:23 AM

#43

BowserLuigi

    Elite Trainer

  • BowserLuigi

I agree with this. I'd say I lose %98.76 of coin flips (random number, just means I lose most of the time), and it really is annoying. I can't even go first if I want to, as the coin flips never agree with me.

I'm not saying that the RNG is broken (or am I?) but I mean seriously, what are these hands with 4 VS Seeker + Sycamore? These hands with 4 DCE? Or just bad hands in general, there really hadn't been a game where I haven't had this happen.

Yeah it is annoying when you have a bunch of DCE/vs seeker and a sycamore as your only draw support. Makes you really salty even when the RNG is supposedly working right.


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11 May 2017 - 03:50 AM

#44

SandaledOtter

    Elite Trainer

  • SandaledOtter

Anyone who thinks there's a problem needs to prove it. Anecdotes are not reliable data. Record every game.


"Swishonk!" That's what's happening!

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11 May 2017 - 11:44 AM

#45

Felidae_

    Elite Trainer

  • Felidae_

Fixed that for you ;)

So...

Today it happened for me to be at a friend's house and i was present in the room while he was playing some PTCGO matches.

Long story short, i witnessed a Tapu Lele GX who it was using a Fury Belt getting knocked out by 8 consecutive heads coins flips from a Pyukumuku.

The outcome of the attack was 240, which was the exact amount of damage needed in order to knock out the card.

 

Don't get me wrong but Pyukumuku isn't the case.

Opening hands are the case.

Coin flips are the case.

RNG totally ignoring a deck's consistency is the case.

 

Being biased towards a small sample size is the problem

Ignoring normal outcome, due to selective memory is the problem.

Believing that a single game out of ten-thousand is somehow a viable stat is the problem.

 

Maybe TPCi is fine with Sakura's experiment as it serves their agenda of the RNG being totally fine, maybe rest of the PTCGO community is fine with Sakura's experiment as they aren't into performing such a dedicated experiment themselves, but i'm not fine either with Sakura's experiments or TCPi's agenda.

 

The RNG is broken, i see it everyday within matches and if you think what i say is absolutely wrong then prove me wrong by showing the RNG code publicly.

 

Or someone could dedicate some time to test the RNG.... you know, with a large sample size that uses methods of statistics, rather than gut feeling ( which is the worst method of measurement know to mankind)... yeah, wish someone would do that....

 

Unless Sakura had access to the RNG's code, then i can also say this experiment is absolutely wrong too.

 

I am sick and tired of the RNG as PTCGO is all about luck and winning isn't based on deck consistency.

 

Oddly enough I still maintain a 80-85% win rate with almost all of my decks and I know a bunch of players in the same range. The RNG was never broken, it just boils down to the same things every time:

Players like to boil down an entire match to a single instance of RNG “Oh well, if I had only hit that coin flip there I'd have won. Stupid RNG.” That's not how the game works.

 

Players tend to throw away games rather carefree, if they get a bad start, thus loosing any opportunity to get better at handling those situations. “Shaymin-EX is my starting Pokemon ? Stupid RNG, concede”.

 

Players love to ignore any instance where RNG favours them, as well as any instance of regular RNG. “That Pyukumuku flipped heads 8 times in a row!” → proceeds to ignore the last 20 times you played against the card, where the attack didn't do any major damage.

 

Ranting is fine, but at this point in time it is up to the RNG critics, to provide any kind of usable data, that'd proof their point of view..

 

 


The shadows of the abyss are like the petals of a monstrous flower that shall blossom within the skull and expand the mind beyond what any man can bear, but whether it decays under the earth or above on green fields, or out to sea or in the very air, all shall come to revelation, and to revel, in the knowledge of the strangling fruit - and the hand of the sinner shall rejoice, for there is no sin in shadow or in light that the seeds of the dead cannot forgive...

 

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11 May 2017 - 12:49 PM

#46

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

No Felidae, you didn't fix anything for me.

Turning Sakura's experiment into godlike material that we should all bow down to and never question isn't the case.

 

The RNG is broken and no one will ever admit.

Sakura's experiment didn't prove anything as much as i can't prove what i'm saying.


Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

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11 May 2017 - 01:09 PM

#47

Rainbow-XN

    Expert Trainer

  • Rainbow-XN

Innocent until proven guilty, no?

That is the whole point.

 

Since it hasn't been proven otherwise, the RNG is innocent of being broken.

 

BUT

 

That doesn't prove that it's working fine! Or that is perfect. Or that it wouldn't need any improvement.

 

Sakura was patient enough to conduct that experiment and that is admirable. Until a next one is conducted that shows different results we have to accept it as a benchmark to all discussions.


All time favorite:

Steelix, Haunter, Scizor, Beedrill, Crobat, Gyarados

 

 

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11 May 2017 - 01:35 PM

#48

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

Since it hasn't been proven otherwise, the RNG is innocent of being broken.

 

BUT

 

That doesn't prove that it's working fine! Or that is perfect. Or that it wouldn't need any improvement.

 

 

Read this.

Repeat.

Repeat.

Repeat.

 

Now you are wiser.


Edited by The_Real_Bug, 11 May 2017 - 01:39 PM.

Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

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11 May 2017 - 01:59 PM

#49

KarpGrinder

    Expert Trainer

  • KarpGrinder

If anyone would like to, we can set up coin-flip based unlimited deck and collect data, I'll be on around 19:00 PDT (approximately 12 hours from the time of this posting).

 

Refined coin-flip data can be collected on the following (but not limited to):

•Coin flips on certain item cards.

•Coin flips based on Turn #.

•Coin flips based on certain status conditions.

•Coin flips on the remainder of a game dependent on the opening (first turn) flip.

•Coin flips based on the 'Advantage' tag.

•etc.

 

Otherwise: carry on with unfounded argument.


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11 May 2017 - 02:28 PM

#50

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

If anyone would like to, we can set up coin-flip based unlimited deck and collect data, I'll be on around 19:00 PDT (approximately 12 hours from the time of this posting).

 

Refined coin-flip data can be collected on the following (but not limited to):

•Coin flips on certain item cards.

•Coin flips based on Turn #.

•Coin flips based on certain status conditions.

•Coin flips on the remainder of a game dependent on the opening (first turn) flip.

•Coin flips based on the 'Advantage' tag.

•etc.

 

Otherwise: carry on with unfounded argument.

 

Unless we get a chance to look at the RNG code itself, this conversation will go on and on.


Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

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11 May 2017 - 07:33 PM

#51

Felidae_

    Elite Trainer

  • Felidae_

Unless we get a chance to look at the RNG code itself, this conversation will go on and on.

Stuffing your fingers into your ears, shouting “LALALA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU, LALALA”, while people provide you with valid data, isn't so much of a conversation, but rather a case study of delusion and denial.

 

Sorry that I can't find nicer words to express this, but this whole “conversation” has striking similarities to angry housewives with high school diplomas, debating against seasoned scientists with a PhD about the danger of vaccination.

 

Turning Sakura's experiment into godlike material that we should all bow down to and never question isn't the case.

 

This is a valid point. No, you shouldn't bow down to it and accept the data that Sakura provided as the ultimate truth.

 

What you should do instead, is seek said data yourself. Go ahead and record your coin flips and those of your opponent. Do this for a week, two weeks,a month. Note your opening hands down. How many times did you miss your supporter ? How many times did you start with a Shaymin, a Jirachi, or a Tapu Lele as your only Pokemon ? What are the odds of those scenarios in relation to your deck and how often did they occur ? Do those numbers match, or are they striking differences between the two ?

 

You are on the hot seat now. Provide us with trustworthy data. Show us that the RNG is flawed in some scenarios. Proof, that your agenda is based on something more than your gut feeling.

 

You said a short time ago “all opinions matter”. I have to disagree. Everyone is entitled to have an opinion, but that doesn't mean that each and every word you, I, or any other human being on this planet has to say is valid information, that should have any kind of influence, unless it is based on something.


The shadows of the abyss are like the petals of a monstrous flower that shall blossom within the skull and expand the mind beyond what any man can bear, but whether it decays under the earth or above on green fields, or out to sea or in the very air, all shall come to revelation, and to revel, in the knowledge of the strangling fruit - and the hand of the sinner shall rejoice, for there is no sin in shadow or in light that the seeds of the dead cannot forgive...

 

  • 2

11 May 2017 - 08:00 PM

#52

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

Stuffing your fingers into your ears, shouting “LALALA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU, LALALA”, while people provide you with valid data, isn't so much of a conversation, but rather a case study of delusion and denial.
 
Sorry that I can't find nicer words to express this, but this whole “conversation” has striking similarities to angry housewives with high school diplomas, debating against seasoned scientists with a PhD about the danger of vaccination.
 

This is a valid point. No, you shouldn't bow down to it and accept the data that Sakura provided as the ultimate truth.
 
What you should do instead, is seek said data yourself. Go ahead and record your coin flips and those of your opponent. Do this for a week, two weeks,a month. Note your opening hands down. How many times did you miss your supporter ? How many times did you start with a Shaymin, a Jirachi, or a Tapu Lele as your only Pokemon ? What are the odds of those scenarios in relation to your deck and how often did they occur ? Do those numbers match, or are they striking differences between the two ?
 
You are on the hot seat now. Provide us with trustworthy data. Show us that the RNG is flawed in some scenarios. Proof, that your agenda is based on something more than your gut feeling.
 
You said a short time ago “all opinions matter”. I have to disagree. Everyone is entitled to have an opinion, but that doesn't mean that each and every word you, I, or any other human being on this planet has to say is valid information, that should have any kind of influence, unless it is based on something.


I'm not delusional​ neither I'm in denial.
Plus I'm not the only one.
I'm just the most vocal of all those that think that the RNG is broken.
I don't enjoy winning or losing by the RNG, i enjoy winning or losing by a deck's consistency.

I don't have the nerves to record every coin flip/opening hand/whatsoever.
I do have the nerves to argue with those that think Sakura's experiment is the perfect example, because it's not.

If you or Sakura are the PhD scientists then I'm The Real Housewife of PTCGO.
Because I've been taking out the trash long time before Sakura's experiment ever happened.

On a final note, if "All Opinions Matter" doesn't apply to you then I'm sorry you feel that way because one day you'll happen to be on the receiving end of it and when you'll realize that it'll be too late.

Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

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11 May 2017 - 09:07 PM

#53

SuperStone

    Elite Trainer

  • SuperStone

I'm not delusional​ neither I'm in denial.
Plus I'm not the only one.
I'm just the most vocal of all those that think that the RNG is broken.
I don't enjoy winning or losing by the RNG, i enjoy winning or losing by a deck's consistency.

I don't have the nerves to record every coin flip/opening hand/whatsoever.
I do have the nerves to argue with those that think Sakura's experiment is the perfect example, because it's not.

If you or Sakura are the PhD scientists then I'm The Real Housewife of PTCGO.
Because I've been taking out the trash long time before Sakura's experiment ever happened.

On a final note, if "All Opinions Matter" doesn't apply to you then I'm sorry you feel that way because one day you'll happen to be on the receiving end of it and when you'll realize that it'll be too late.

Well if you're unwilling to do the work to defend your opinion, do you really have a right to keep that opinion?

 

If you want anything to change, you're going to have to start by proving there's a problem.

 

And I will remind you that the majority of players don't think there's a problem.

 

Especially the good ones.


The truth waits for no one.  That which you refuse to see, TPCi, slips past you.  The chat function was never your problem, yet through your blindness, you have made it one.

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11 May 2017 - 09:09 PM

#54

Rainbow-XN

    Expert Trainer

  • Rainbow-XN

To make things a bit clearer here:

 

There is an old fable of Aesop about The Boy Who Cried Wolf. If you haven't read it, it is a good time to do so now (and thank me later) :)

 

*spoilers below*

 

Anyway, what we have here is the boy (TRB) who thinks there is a wolf coming (RNG is broken) but has no evidence about that, only some signs. So he shouts to everyone else "The Wolf is Coming"! (The difference with the fable is that TRB is not joking)

 

On the other hand, there are people that since they've seen no wolf and there is a person (Sakura) that has proven to them with evidence that there is no wolf (RNG is fine) they decide to never again believe the boy and they desert him.

 

As we know, the wolf comes after all and eats the sheep. But that is the conclusion of the fable. Personally, I don't know if that's the case with the RNG.

 

What I can't do though, is to ignore the signs that a wolf might exist. I think that's what TRB is trying to say, although he is overreacting a bit. But that's TRB :)

 

Since the game is not developed by the players themselves, the only thing we can do is to suggest, to complain and to discuss.

 

On this matter, we have a valid, strong point made by Sakura's experiment. On the opposite side there are people and their experience.

 

You don't have to choose a side. And even if you are on a side, you don't have to force the other side to join you.

 

Be polite. Be constructive.

 

Thanks for reading me.


Edited by Rainbow-XN, 11 May 2017 - 09:21 PM.

All time favorite:

Steelix, Haunter, Scizor, Beedrill, Crobat, Gyarados

 

 

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11 May 2017 - 09:19 PM

#55

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

Well if you're unwilling to do the work to defend your opinion, do you really have a right to keep that opinion?

 

If you want anything to change, you're going to have to start by proving there's a problem.

 

And I will remind you that the majority of players don't think there's a problem.

 

Especially the good ones.

 

I've seen a lot of things with my very eyes.

For myself i know i'm right.

If you think i'm that 0.01% of the community that constantly complains, then just let me be and ignore me.

But i'm not going to withdraw from my entitled opinion.

 

Either show us the code publicly or no experiment will ever be enough to satisfy either side.


Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

  • 0

11 May 2017 - 09:45 PM

#56

SuperStone

    Elite Trainer

  • SuperStone

I've seen a lot of things with my very eyes.

For myself i know i'm right.

If you think i'm that 0.01% of the community that constantly complains, then just let me be and ignore me.

But i'm not going to withdraw from my entitled opinion.

 

Either show us the code publicly or no experiment will ever be enough to satisfy either side.

But how can you know you're right if you refuse to check?  That's kinda like thinking the capital of Australia is Sydney.  That's a common misconception, but the truth is it's Canberra.  But if you refuse to check, you only ensure you stay wrong forever.


The truth waits for no one.  That which you refuse to see, TPCi, slips past you.  The chat function was never your problem, yet through your blindness, you have made it one.

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11 May 2017 - 09:49 PM

#57

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

But how can you know you're right if you refuse to check?  That's kinda like thinking the capital of Australia is Sydney.  That's a common misconception, but the truth is it's Canberra.  But if you refuse to check, you only ensure you stay wrong forever.

 

I'm not ignorant neither illiterate.

I'm just standing by the things i've witnessed.


Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

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11 May 2017 - 10:39 PM

#58

Mod_Elderberry

    Moderator

  • Mod_Elderberry

Well if you're unwilling to do the work to defend your opinion, do you really have a right to keep that opinion?

If you want anything to change, you're going to have to start by proving there's a problem.

Personally, I think that everyone is entitled to their opinions.

With that said, and talking about 'willingness to defend ones opinion' and 'proving there's a problem', what comes to mind for me is: Russell's teapot, which is a thought experiment used in order to illustrate that the philosophic burden of proof lies upon a person making scientifically unfalsifiable claims, rather than shifting the burden of disproof to others.

That story goes like this:
 

There is an invisible teapot orbiting the sun somewhere in space between Earth and Mars. It is impossible to see with any telescope or satellite or by any man made technology. It also can phase through matter, so you can't knock it out of orbit if you wanted to. If you can't prove that I am wrong, then, I am right and the teapot does in fact exist.

 
The lesson here is: If you make a claim (and you are well within your rights to do so, everyone can have their own opinions and the right to be wrong about stuff), nobody has to take you seriously or believe you unless you back up that claim with evidence. If your evidence for a claim being true relies on someone else to disprove your assertion, especially when that assertion is unfalsifiable or not backed by any reasonable evidence, then the claim can rightly be dismissed out of hand.
 
The ability for a test/experiment/observation to be falsifiable, is a key component and at the heart of the scientific method.

Or at least, that's my opinion on the subject of who has the burden of proof when someone is making a claim.

With all that said, and more specifically to PTCGO, to my knowledge RNG has been looked into extensively and is working as expected. Even with that being the case, I personally welcome anyone to do any tests they wish to determine if RNG is working as well as one would hope, especially if they use fair sample sizes while doing so.


Moderator Elderberry
Pokémon TCG Online Moderator

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11 May 2017 - 11:04 PM

#59

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

I'm totally fine with being called a "ghost-chaser" as i'm totally not into becoming a "myth-buster".

With that being said, my claims may be invalid but they are things that i've seen them happening more than just a few times and they are totally not parts of my

imagination.

If the only way of proving that my claims are correct is by performing an experiment similar to Sakura's, then it seems that i'm out of luck as i'm totally not into such dedicated procedure.

 

But can someone explain me these:

* Why every time you edit a deck, your opening hands always end up being "bad shuffles" (1 basic and 6 non-shuffling cards)

* Why every time a card like Corsola or Pyukumuku ends up with scoring the exact amount of heads needed to score a KO instead of flipping head beyond it? (8 heads instead of 9/10/11 etc)

* Why deck's consistency is being thrown out the window when you need it the most (RNG over consistency)

 

In my opinion the above situations that i've described indicate cracks on the RNG.

If anyone is interested, i would like to hear some replies.


Edited by The_Real_Bug, 11 May 2017 - 11:39 PM.

Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

  • 0

12 May 2017 - 01:00 AM

#60

FlavorfulPineAp

    Senior Trainer

  • FlavorfulPineAp

I'm totally fine with being called a "ghost-chaser" as i'm totally not into becoming a "myth-buster".
With that being said, my claims may be invalid but they are things that i've seen them happening more than just a few times and they are totally not parts of my
imagination.
If the only way of proving that my claims are correct is by performing an experiment similar to Sakura's, then it seems that i'm out of luck as i'm totally not into such dedicated procedure.
 
But can someone explain me these:
* Why every time you edit a deck, your opening hands always end up being "bad shuffles" (1 basic and 6 non-shuffling cards)
* Why every time a card like Corsola or Pyukumuku ends up with scoring the exact amount of heads needed to score a KO instead of flipping head beyond it? (8 heads instead of 9/10/11 etc)
* Why deck's consistency is being thrown out the window when you need it the most (RNG over consistency)
 
In my opinion the above situations that i've described indicate cracks on the RNG.
If anyone is interested, i would like to hear some replies.


As well when you create a deck, your first hands will always be bad shuffling. It's as if the game doesn't know what it is doing. It then realises that it should be doing something, so the next few times you play the deck, the cards will be properly shuffled. (Though no always, because, well.... RNG)

I'm not really choosing a side, not saying the RNG isn't working properly, but how can anybody explain this?

Deck Building Maniac :cool: 

:wub: Favorite deck/s: Vespiquen/Vileplume, Vespiquen, Vespiquen/Flareon  :wub:  

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