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RNG Experiment: Attack Coinflips


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04 March 2017 - 05:14 PM

#21

Cuqk

    Expert Trainer

  • Cuqk

I built a similar list, an Archie's Blastoise/Malamar-EX. I included 15 energies but most times attacked with less than that.

In 4 matches against the AI i flipped 199 coins, resulting in 102 heads and 97 tails. The 'log' is as follows:

 

(see next post...i edited and the text lost format)


Edited by Cuqk, 05 March 2017 - 03:04 AM.

deck build maniac

 

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04 March 2017 - 05:23 PM

#22

Cuqk

    Expert Trainer

  • Cuqk
Game 1
Heads / Tails
2 / 0 = 2 flips
5 / 6 = 11 flips
H=7 / T=6
Total Flips=13

Game 2
Heads / Tails
3 / 2 = 5 flips
7 / 3 = 10 flips
5 / 6 = 11 flips
5 / 7 = 12 flips
7 / 5 = 12 flips
6 / 9 = 15 flips
H=33 / T=32
Total Flips=65

Game 3
Heads / Tails
1 / 2 = 3 flips
2 / 2 = 4 flips
6 / 4 = 10 flips
8 / 6 = 14 flips
7 / 8 = 15 flips
9 / 6 = 15 flips
H=33 / T=28
Total Flips=61

Game 4
Heads / Tails
3 / 1 = 4 flips
3 / 5 = 8 flips
5 / 4 = 9 flips
2 / ****** flips
7 / 7 = 14 flips
9 / 6 = 15 flips
H=29 / T=31
Total Flips=60

Total flips=199 / Total Heads=102 / Total Tails=97

deck build maniac

 

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04 March 2017 - 11:56 PM

#23

ashyboy1989

    Junior Trainer

  • ashyboy1989
Great thread Sakura. Your work is very clean, concise and professionally done. Unfortunately no matter how well done there will always be (and seemingly growing) fact-resistant people.
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05 March 2017 - 12:14 AM

#24

Adhir1995

    Elite Trainer

  • Adhir1995

I am very impressed that you took the time out of your life to do this research for the sake of getting it though people's thick skulls that the coin is not rigged.

 

Thank you for your excellent work to prove every RNG post wrong and finally put this to bed

 

Well done Sakura! Your post deserves to be pinned :) And Congratulations to you on that as well :D 


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05 March 2017 - 03:05 AM

#25

Cuqk

    Expert Trainer

  • Cuqk

So, "6 = 8" is offensive in what language, exactly?

Lmfao i know, right?! That's why i edited the original and still...

 

Adhir1995 i agree the post should be pinned... it would prevent the creation of those posts... but i think those thick headed would still complaint.


Edited by Cuqk, 05 March 2017 - 03:08 AM.

deck build maniac

 

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08 March 2017 - 03:06 PM

#26

KarpGrinder

    Expert Trainer

  • KarpGrinder

What difficulty AI was the coin-flip data collected on?

 

I only ask because when I was completing the Trainer Challenge back in the day using the Plasma Vanilluxe deck I remember coin flips being more lopsided in the favour of the AI when the difficulty was set to maximum (attacking with 5-10 energy on Vanilluxe resulted in about 35% flips for heads after 200~ data samples) - I didn't mind because I was still stomping the AI into the ground and figured the game modified those flips to simulate a more difficult challenge.

 

However; the PTCGO was still in it's infancy at the time (Plasma Freeze had just been released and the Frost Ray theme deck finally gave me the motivation to finally collect my 45 free packs) so the coin flip system has likely been changed since then.


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08 March 2017 - 04:46 PM

#27

Cuqk

    Expert Trainer

  • Cuqk

What difficulty AI was the coin-flip data collected on?

 

I only ask because when I was completing the Trainer Challenge back in the day using the Plasma Vanilluxe deck I remember coin flips being more lopsided in the favour of the AI when the difficulty was set to maximum (attacking with 5-10 energy on Vanilluxe resulted in about 35% flips for heads after 200~ data samples) - I didn't mind because I was still stomping the AI into the ground and figured the game modified those flips to simulate a more difficult challenge.

 

However; the PTCGO was still in it's infancy at the time (Plasma Freeze had just been released and the Frost Ray theme deck finally gave me the motivation to finally collect my 45 free packs) so the coin flip system has likely been changed since then.

Well i didn't go against the AI in Trainer's Challenge where you can set difficulty, but rather in Deck Test Mode in Deck Construction, so i figure the difficulty level is standard. Also i don't feel inclined to believe that the difficulty leven in TC affects the RNG not even for coin flips.


deck build maniac

 

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08 March 2017 - 05:14 PM

#28

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612

What difficulty AI was the coin-flip data collected on?

 

I only ask because when I was completing the Trainer Challenge back in the day using the Plasma Vanilluxe deck I remember coin flips being more lopsided in the favour of the AI when the difficulty was set to maximum (attacking with 5-10 energy on Vanilluxe resulted in about 35% flips for heads after 200~ data samples) - I didn't mind because I was still stomping the AI into the ground and figured the game modified those flips to simulate a more difficult challenge.

 

However; the PTCGO was still in it's infancy at the time (Plasma Freeze had just been released and the Frost Ray theme deck finally gave me the motivation to finally collect my 45 free packs) so the coin flip system has likely been changed since then.

 

I did it with the "Test your deck" option in the Deck Manager, so I don't get to chose the difficulty setting. It could default to the highest level, but to be honest I have absolutely no idea what the difficulty level is. Although I cannot speak for the state of the game 4 years ago in that particular scenario, I know that in its current state the game does not have any issues with its coin flips in any of its forms.


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08 March 2017 - 06:54 PM

#29

theotherguytm

    Expert Trainer

  • theotherguytm

Well i didn't go against the AI in Trainer's Challenge where you can set difficulty, but rather in Deck Test Mode in Deck Construction, so i figure the difficulty level is standard. Also i don't feel inclined to believe that the difficulty leven in TC affects the RNG not even for coin flips.

I think, from experience, that the RNG in the TC is skewed on the higher difficulties, and maybe the Test Deck automatically puts you against the highest difficulty AI, though I'm not sure about this. If the RNG is rigged on higher difficulties, then your data would show that the Test Deck puts you against a Normal AI.

If you have time, could you look into the TC further? Though the TC RNG may have changed in the update.


Edited by theotherguytm, 08 March 2017 - 06:56 PM.

This is my OTHER signature.

 

http://forums.pokemontcg.com/topic/42500-the-mindless-nonsense-begins-my-ideas/

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09 March 2017 - 01:03 AM

#30

Cuqk

    Expert Trainer

  • Cuqk

If you have time, could you look into the TC further? Though the TC RNG may have changed in the update.

What do you mean? Make a test for the coin flips in TC? That would be harsher and take an amount of time i don't have to invest right now, as pokémon's HP are lower and the attacks flip less coins. The thing with Malamar-EX or the Gyarados Sakura used is you can actualy flip a lot of coins in one single attack, thus reducing the experiment time.

I feel inclined, though, to make a 100/200 coin flip test in Versus Mode with this Archie's Blasto/Malamar-EX deck, adding a few twists to make it more reliable and 'competitive', because the deck i took to Test Deck Mode is quite unreliable. When i have the time to do it i'll post the results here. Going against real life players as Sakura did is the ultimate sample we can get.


deck build maniac

 

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09 March 2017 - 02:54 AM

#31

bulbasaur32277

    Elite Trainer

  • bulbasaur32277

This is a very good Post. I enjoyed reading it even though I literally had to read it slow because I'm not good at math. Here the thing though. It isn't the RNG that I'm concerened about. I'm concerned about the shuffling and the matchups in PVP. The shuffling system needs to be adjusted. You know how many times I started off with 2 or more mega pokemon in my hand in the first turn? Way to many for it to be a fluke. Also I promise you I played with the same deck for like 40 games. Then I made a new deck without EX in it................when I clicked on PVP for some reason it took a minute to find my opponent.........which it usually finds my oppoenent right away...............and low and behold my oppoenent is literally playing the counter to my deck. Cmon!!! Seriously! You know how many times that happened when I played the same deck like 10+ times and never run into a certain type, then I switch decks and I run into my complete counter. I know for a fact it bases my opponents on the type of deck I'm running. I wish I had the patience and time to do a study like Sakura did but I'm too busy trying to survive in pvp facing a type I'm weak against. Anyway.

 

By the way Sakura..................I challenge you to a match. You must be good and I love a challenge. Hit me up. I'll send friend request.  


Edited by bulbasaur32277, 09 March 2017 - 03:09 AM.

[SIZE=4]#1 Bulbasaur in the world! :cool:
IRL-Broke :(
[/SIZE]
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09 March 2017 - 03:31 AM

#32

Sakura150612

    Elite Trainer

  • Sakura150612

This is a very good Post. I enjoyed reading it even though I literally had to read it slow because I'm not good at math. Here the thing though. It isn't the RNG that I'm concerened about. I'm concerned about the shuffling and the matchups in PVP. The shuffling system needs to be adjusted. You know how many times I started off with 2 or more mega pokemon in my hand in the first turn? Way to many for it to be a fluke. Also I promise you I played with the same deck for like 40 games. Then I made a new deck without EX in it................when I clicked on PVP for some reason it took a minute to find my opponent.........which it usually finds my oppoenent right away...............and low and behold my oppoenent is literally playing the counter to my deck. Cmon!!! Seriously! You know how many times that happened when I played the same deck like 10+ times and never run into a certain type, then I switch decks and I run into my complete counter. I know for a fact it bases my opponents on the type of deck I'm running. I wish I had the patience and time to do a study like Sakura did but I'm too busy trying to survive in pvp facing a type I'm weak against. Anyway.
 
By the way Sakura..................I challenge you to a match. You must be good and I love a challenge. Hit me up. I'll send friend request.


Hey it's great to see you're back bulbasaur xD I'll be happy to take the challenge, so whenever we catch each other online we can play.

Regarding the matchmaking, that's probably the one thing I won't be able to properly investigate. The main issue it has which the other forms of RNG lack is that there are too many unknowns and that I have essentially no parameters to compare the results with. The reason I did coin flips first is because they are very straight forward; you expect a 50-50 split in the long run and each subset of coin flips can be determined as either normal or anomalous with a simple formula (1 divided the square root of the sample size). With matchmaking, while the game randomly picks from the player pool, said pool is restricted by MMR, and while it's technically not a factor, it's restricted by what people are using at the moment (as in, a very hyped deck will normally see more play).

As I have no theoretical way of knowing the actual proportion of people playing each deck type, even if I gathered results they wouldn't mean much. What I CAN do to test is use 2 or more different decks in the same format, play them for at least 30 matches each and compare. But to do this, I wpuld have to do it under similar conditions, and ideally play all the games in a single day, as that would give me the least amount of variance in the data. I might tackle that one in my winter vacations (I live in the southern hemisphere) when I can actually sit down and play 100+ games in a single day xD

Shuffling, on the other hand, has no real unknowns. It is possible to calculate theoretically the chance of pulling any given card at any given specific situation. The reason I haven't done it is because the math behind that is a nightmare xd
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09 March 2017 - 09:47 PM

#33

Mod_Elderberry

    Moderator

  • Mod_Elderberry

This thread was getting a little off topic and it had to be cleaned up a bit.

So this is a quick general reminder to everyone: to stay on topic.


Moderator Elderberry
Pokémon TCG Online Moderator

Need help from the support team? Visit the support portal and submit a ticket!


10 March 2017 - 02:55 PM

#34

KarpGrinder

    Expert Trainer

  • KarpGrinder

I ran a small sample last night using the PlasmaFreeze "Frost Ray" deck against 4-star difficulty AI opponents:

 

                                 KarpGrinder                AI Opponent
Total Coin Flips               172                               36
Heads Flipped                 71                                18
Heads %                       41.2%                             50%

 

 The flip ratio definitely felt better than I remember from years past and the AI flip rate seemed to be far more balanced - but I'll collect more data this evening.

 

EDIT: BBCode Table writing is weird.


Edited by KarpGrinder, 10 March 2017 - 02:59 PM.

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08 April 2017 - 01:06 AM

#35

Cubchoo103

    Senior Trainer

  • Cubchoo103
I feel like my ho oh rebirth ability hits at like a 75% rate
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08 April 2017 - 01:15 AM

#36

pjenki4

    Novice Trainer

  • pjenki4

Spread sheets and bar graphs

 

Yum! :D

 

Four thumbs up if I had two more, well done!


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02 May 2017 - 07:22 PM

#37

OddJupiter

    Rookie Trainer

  • OddJupiter

I have a rule for item cards that require a coin flip to activate; I'll only use them once they have been in my hand for one turn. I have MUCH higher success rate with these cards when used in that way. Which makes me think that the RNG calculation is based on time in play. e.g. a numeric value representing the time the card has been in play (either in seconds or number of turns), is used in the sum to calculate the heads/tails, odd/even result.


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02 May 2017 - 10:49 PM

#38

SuperStone

    Elite Trainer

  • SuperStone

I have a rule for item cards that require a coin flip to activate; I'll only use them once they have been in my hand for one turn. I have MUCH higher success rate with these cards when used in that way. Which makes me think that the RNG calculation is based on time in play. e.g. a numeric value representing the time the card has been in play (either in seconds or number of turns), is used in the sum to calculate the heads/tails, odd/even result.

It's not.  Sorry, but it just isn't.


The rest of the world must act as they see fit.  If TPCi insists on keeping the Chat canned, that is their decision.

 

But that does not stop me from opposing it.

And I will oppose it forever.

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02 May 2017 - 11:21 PM

#39

Felidae_

    Elite Trainer

  • Felidae_

I have a rule for item cards that require a coin flip to activate; I'll only use them once they have been in my hand for one turn. I have MUCH higher success rate with these cards when used in that way. Which makes me think that the RNG calculation is based on time in play. e.g. a numeric value representing the time the card has been in play (either in seconds or number of turns), is used in the sum to calculate the heads/tails, odd/even result.

Whatever helps you sleep at night mate :D.


The shadows of the abyss are like the petals of a monstrous flower that shall blossom within the skull and expand the mind beyond what any man can bear, but whether it decays under the earth or above on green fields, or out to sea or in the very air, all shall come to revelation, and to revel, in the knowledge of the strangling fruit - and the hand of the sinner shall rejoice, for there is no sin in shadow or in light that the seeds of the dead cannot forgive...

 

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11 May 2017 - 12:20 AM

#40

The_Real_Bug

    Expert Trainer

  • The_Real_Bug

So...

Today it happened for me to be at a friend's house and i was present in the room while he was playing some PTCGO matches.

Long story short, i witnessed a Tapu Lele GX who it was using a Fury Belt getting knocked out by 8 consecutive heads coins flips from a Pyukumuku.

The outcome of the attack was 240, which was the exact amount of damage needed in order to knock out the card.

 

Don't get me wrong but Pyukumuku isn't the case.

Opening hands are the case.

Coin flips are the case.

RNG totally ignoring a deck's consistency is the case.

 

Maybe TPCi is fine with Sakura's experiment as it serves their agenda of the RNG being totally fine, maybe rest of the PTCGO community is fine with Sakura's experiment as they aren't into performing such a dedicated experiment themselves, but i'm not fine either with Sakura's experiments or TCPi's agenda.

 

The RNG is broken, i see it everyday within matches and if you think what i say is absolutely wrong then prove me wrong by showing the RNG code publicly.

Unless Sakura had access to the RNG's code, then i can also say this experiment is absolutely wrong too.

 

I am sick and tired of the RNG as PTCGO is all about luck and winning isn't based on deck consistency.


Edited by The_Real_Bug, 11 May 2017 - 12:33 AM.

Don't follow the trends, follow my threads

/u/The_Real_Bug_ /r/ptcgo

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